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82% Chance Strong El Niño By July, Threatening 2026 Heatwaves

5/15/2026

Summary

CPC Predicts El Niño

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts an 82% chance of El Niño by July, a 96% chance it will persist through winter 2026-27, and a two-in-three chance of it being strong or very strong (37% very strong and 30% strong).
Super El Niño odds have risen to one in three for the November-January period.
Scientists warn a strong El Niño could make 2026 or 2027 among the warmest years and raise U.S. heatwaves.

Summary

El Niño Floods

Full El Niño strength is projected to arrive by December 2026 or January 2027.
Models forecast 150-200 % of normal precipitation, up to 40-50 inches in San Luis Obispo and about 40 inches in Santa Barbara.
The subtropical jet is expected to shift west-southwest, delivering tropical-moisture-laden storms directly from the Pacific.
Higher river levels could threaten the Salinas River, San Luis Obispo Creek and coastal zones, raise mudslide risk in nearby mountains, and reduce coastal fog.

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CPC Predicts El Niño

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts an 82% chance of El Niño by July, a 96% chance it will persist through winter 2026-27, and a two-in-three chance of it being strong or very strong (37% very strong and 30% strong).
Super El Niño odds have risen to one in three for the November-January period.
Scientists warn a strong El Niño could make 2026 or 2027 among the warmest years and raise U.S. heatwaves.

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