Full Breakdown
Xavier Becerra Leads California Gubernatorial Primary
5/15/2026, 7:15:29 AM
Core Event: Becerra Tops Recent Polls
A poll conducted by Emerson College and Inside California Politics on May 9-10 surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters and found former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra at 19 percent, ahead of Republican commentator Steve Hilton and Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer, each at 17 percent. The same poll recorded 12 percent of respondents undecided and indicated that 73 percent of Hilton’s supporters said they would definitely vote for him, compared with 52 percent of Becerra’s supporters.
Background & Context: Top-Two Primary and Field Shifts
California’s top-two primary, scheduled for June 2, advances the two candidates with the most votes regardless of party affiliation. The race opened with a crowded field that included Rep. Eric Swalwell, who withdrew in early April after sexual-misconduct allegations. Becerra’s poll numbers rose sharply after Swalwell’s exit, moving from single-digit support in March to the lead in May.
Key Figures & Groups
- Xavier Becerra – Former U.S. Representative, California Attorney General, and HHS Secretary (2021-2025).
- Steve Hilton – Former Fox News commentator and Republican political consultant, endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
- Tom Steyer – Billionaire philanthropist and former 2020 presidential candidate, self-funding his campaign with more than $132 million by mid-April.
- Katie Porter, Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa – Democratic contenders with double-digit or lower poll support.
- SEIU California, Our Revolution – Labor and progressive groups that have endorsed Steyer.
Timeline of Recent Developments
- Early April – Eric Swalwell exits the race.
- Mid-April – Emerson poll shows Becerra at 10 percent; Steyer’s self-funded spending reaches $105 million.
- May 9-10 – Emerson poll records Becerra at 19 percent, a nine-point increase since mid-April.
- May 12-13 – Kreate Strategies poll places Hilton at 22 percent, Becerra at 20 percent.
- May 13 – Ballots begin mailing; early voting opens May 23.
Data & Statistics: Poll Numbers and Voter Priorities
- Support levels: Becerra 19 % (Emerson), Hilton 22 % (Kreate), Steyer 14-17 % across polls.
- Voter issues: Economy (42 %), housing affordability (21 %), threats to democracy (9 %), immigration (8 %).
- Voter loyalty: 73 % of Hilton voters, 52 % of Becerra voters, 48 % of Steyer voters say they will definitely vote for their candidate.
Why It Matters: Potential Outcomes and Policy Stakes
If Becerra and Hilton advance, the November general election could feature two candidates from opposite parties, shaping debates on the state’s economy, housing, health-care reform, and immigration enforcement. Becerra has proposed a state of emergency to address housing costs and has signaled support for expanding health-care coverage, while Hilton promotes a “Califordable” agenda focused on cost reduction and public safety.
Official Statements & Responses
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Becerra’s surge “was driven by now being the top choice among Democratic voters at 31 percent.”
Becerra told reporters, “We should try to get to a ‘Medicare for All’ program, and while we are continuing to work in that direction, we should make sure we are expanding coverage because the most important thing we have to do is give people peace of mind that they can afford their healthcare.”
Hilton’s campaign released a statement that “Republicans are united, and for the first time in 16 years, we are going to restore the California Dream.”
Steyer argued that Becerra “opposes single-payer health care” and cited the California Medical Association’s endorsement of Becerra as evidence.
Criticism & Opposition
Former Biden administration officials, including former DOJ spokesperson Xochitl Hinojosa, said they “do not trust Xavier Becerra to stand up to Trump” and called him “not effective in government.”
A 2023 New York Times investigation found the HHS office under Becerra failed to vet sponsors of unaccompanied migrant children, leading to labor-exploitation cases. Becerra has dismissed the findings as “Trump talking points.”
A campaign-finance case involving former chief of staff Sean McCluskie, who pleaded guilty to fraud, has been cited by Katie Porter and Antonio Villaraigosa as a risk factor for Becerra’s candidacy.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on whether Becerra leads or ties with Hilton; Emerson shows a narrow lead, while Kreate Strategies places Hilton ahead. Assessments of Becerra’s competence vary, with some analysts highlighting his extensive résumé and others emphasizing alleged mismanagement at HHS. The legal outcome of the campaign-finance investigation remains pending.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We should try to get to a ‘Medicare for All’ program, and while we are continuing to work in that direction, we should make sure we are expanding coverage because the most important thing we have to do is give people peace of mind that they can afford their healthcare,” — Xavier Becerra, *The Hill*
- “Republicans are united, and for the first time in 16 years, we are going to restore the California Dream,” — Steve Hilton, Instagram
- “The experience we got from Secretary Becerra didn’t lead to better outcomes,” — Antonio Villaraigosa, CNN debate
- “I’m moving forward,” — Xavier Becerra, press conference
What’s Next
Ballots will be mailed to all registered voters by May 4, with early voting beginning May 23. The top two vote-getters on June 2 will advance to the November general election, where the final contest for governor will be decided.
