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Becerra Leads California Race After Swalwell Exit

5/15/2026

43 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Xavier Becerra’s poll rating jumped 16 points after Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew, putting him in lead among California candidates.
The Emerson College poll gives Xavier Becerra 19%, Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer ~17%, Chad Bianco 11%, Katie Porter 10%, Matt Mahan 8%, and 12% remain undecided.
Voters register by May 18, vote from May 23, and June 2 primary runs, when a debate aired May 14 at San Francisco’s Julia Morgan Ballroom.

History

Historical Context

In the 2020 Democratic primary, 29 major candidates entered and 18 withdrew before the first contest; when Pete Buttigieg suspended his campaign in March, Joe Biden’s national poll numbers surged, and his South Carolina victory propelled him to win ten of fifteen Super Tuesday contests, securing the presumptive nomination. The episode shows how a candidate’s exit can instantly reshape voter alignments.

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Story summary

Xavier Becerra’s poll rating jumped 16 points after Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew, putting him in lead among California candidates.
The Emerson College poll gives Xavier Becerra 19%, Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer ~17%, Chad Bianco 11%, Katie Porter 10%, Matt Mahan 8%, and 12% remain undecided.
Voters register by May 18, vote from May 23, and June 2 primary runs, when a debate aired May 14 at San Francisco’s Julia Morgan Ballroom.

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