Full Breakdown
Becerra Takes Lead in California Gubernatorial Primary
5/15/2026, 9:53:02 PM
Becerra Leads Primary
A new Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll released Wednesday shows former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra leading the June 2 primary with 19% support. Former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton, endorsed by President Donald Trump, falls to second with 17.1%. Tom Steyer trails at 16.6%, Chad Bianco at 10.7% and Katie Porter at 10.3%.
Top-Two Primary Context
California’s nonpartisan blanket primary advances the two highest vote-getters regardless of party. The field opened after former Congressman Eric Swalwell withdrew earlier this year, reviving fears that two Republicans—Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco—could finish first and second. Governor Gavin Newsom has referenced a “break-the-glass” contingency plan should that scenario occur.
Candidate Rankings & Priorities
Undecided voters fell to 12.1% from 23%. Respondents are 50.2% Democrats, 26.2% Republicans, 23% independents; gender split 48.3% male, 50.9% female, 0.8% nonbinary/other. The economy leads issue importance at 42%, followed by housing affordability (21%) and threats to democracy (8.5%). President Trump has 67.6% disapproval versus 27.5% approval; Governor Newsom’s approval is 43.4% versus 40.4% disapproval.
Newsom’s Official Remarks
At a budget presentation, Newsom said he does not expect a two-Republican general election and stressed ensuring at least one Democrat advances. He declined to endorse any candidate, noting the crowded Democratic slate. He added that the Democratic Governors Association is emailing voters to support Hilton and curb Bianco’s vote share to avoid a Republican-only runoff.
Criticism & Public Sentiment
Critics note high disapproval of President Trump and the narrow gap in Newsom’s approval as signs of voter fatigue with partisan extremes. Democratic strategists remain wary of the “break-the-glass” plan, fearing a split vote could still yield two Republicans. Housing affordability and democratic integrity also rank among top voter concerns.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I do not see that scenario taking place,” — Gavin Newsom, Governor of California
- “There are many people who have a deep understanding of what it would look like if Democrats were locked out,” — Gavin Newsom
- “I was in a similar position with a similar stubborn governor that refused to get involved,” — Gavin Newsom
- “I developed tremendous animus towards him, and now I offer forgiveness.” — Gavin Newsom
June 2 Primary Outlook
California voters will vote on June 2 to select the two candidates for the November election. If two Republicans still advance, Democratic officials have indicated a pre-arranged “break-the-glass” response, though details remain undisclosed. The latest poll lowers the likelihood of that outcome, but the race remains fluid as candidates vie for the top-two slots.
