Stephen Miran’s Exit Sets the Stage for New Fed Direction

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran will leave the Board in the next few days, ending a term that began in September 2025 and will be the shortest for a governor in 71 years. He filled the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler and will be succeeded by Kevin Warsh, confirmed as the next Fed chair on Wednesday. Miran also resigned in February from his White House Council of Economic Advisers role, drawing criticism from President Donald Trump’s campaign to undermine Fed independence.

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Miran entered the Fed while still chair of the Trump administration’s Council of Economic Advisers, a dual role to avoid a third Senate confirmation. He dissented at all six Fed meetings he attended. His initial dot projection called for a 100-basis-point rate cut this year—three quarter-point cuts more than the median—later revised to 75 basis points as newer data raised inflation concerns. Miran estimates deregulation could shave about 0.5 percentage points from future inflation, though tariff-driven price spikes may offset gains. He notes monetary policy effects take 12–18 months, limiting response to immediate supply-shock price spikes.

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Miran said the Fed operates as a “committee,” needing consensus, and noted staff gave his ideas an “open mind” despite critics calling him a threat to independence. He argued his push for lower rates was data-driven, saying rates were “too high.” Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh called the administration’s deregulation agenda “the most significant since President Ronald Reagan’s,” suggesting alignment with Miran’s supply-side view.

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Some Fed members warned Miran’s aggressive rate-cut agenda could jeopardize inflation control and labor-market stability. Critics also doubted his claim that deregulation would be “disinflationary,” citing tariff-induced price pressures.

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• “It's different than an agency where there's a very clear executive who just runs the show, and what he or she says goes, and if you don't like it, you're out.” — Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve Governor

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• “You've got to convince people,” — Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve Governor

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• “If you think that a higher tariff is going to boost clothing prices today, there's nothing you can do about that with monetary policy,” — Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve Governor

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• “That's the thing with supply shocks, is that you need to be forecasting more supply shocks,” — Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve Governor

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Miran’s dot projection shifted from a 100-basis-point cut to 75 basis points after newer inflation data. The article offers no empirical evidence on deregulation’s impact, leaving the 0.5-percentage-point estimate unverified.

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Kevin Warsh will assume the Fed chairmanship, inheriting Miran’s dissent record and proposals. Miran plans to publish a paper with two Fed economists arguing recent software-inflation figures are artificially high. Upcoming Fed meetings will test the balance between Warsh’s deregulatory agenda and the Board’s consensus-driven process.

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