Full Breakdown
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield By-Election Bid: Stakes for Labour, Reform UK and Greater Manchester
5/16/2026, 1:06:36 AM
Triggering Event: MP Resignation and By-Election Call
Labour MP Josh Simons announced his intention to stand down from the Makerfield constituency, creating a by-election in a seat Labour has held since 1983. The vacancy offers Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham a path back to the House of Commons.
Background & Context: Burnham’s mayoral record and Labour leadership turmoil
Burnham has served as Greater Manchester mayor since 2017, winning three elections with 63 %-plus of the regional vote (66 % in Wigan). Amid a wave of resignations and calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down, Burnham has signalled his ambition to challenge for Labour leadership if he returns to Westminster.
Key Figures & Groups
- Andy Burnham – Labour mayor, former MP for Leigh (2001-2017).
- Josh Simons – Outgoing Makerfield MP (elected 2022).
- Nigel Farage – Leader of Reform UK, promising to “throw everything” at the contest.
- Labour National Executive Committee (NEC) – Must approve Burnham’s candidacy after blocking him from the Gorton & Denton by-election.
- Reform UK, Green Party, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats – All field candidates.
Timeline
- 7 May 2024: Local elections – Reform wins 24 of 25 Wigan-council seats.
- 8 May 2024: Simons announces resignation, citing Burnham as the preferred successor.
- Mid-June 2024 (earliest 18 June): By-election scheduled.
- Early July 2024 (if Burnham wins): He would resign as mayor, triggering a mayoral by-election.
Data & Statistics
- Makerfield electorate ? 76 000 (BBC).
- 2024 general election: Simons 45.2 % of the vote, majority 5 399; Reform 31.8 %; Conservatives ? 7 %; Greens ? 10 %.
- Local elections (eight wards): Reform ? 50 % vote share, Labour ? 27 %, Greens ? 10 %, Conservatives ? 7 %, Lib Dem ? 4 % (BBC).
- Burnham’s mayoral vote share: 63.4 % overall, 66 % in Wigan (BBC).
- Polling: Sir John Curtice (Politico) – Labour’s chance < 5 % without Burnham; Survation – Burnham leads Starmer among Labour members.
Why It Matters
A Burnham victory would give Labour a high-profile candidate for a leadership contest and could reshape the party’s national standing. Conversely, a Reform win would mark a breakthrough for a right-populist party in a historic Labour heartland and could precipitate a costly mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester.
Official Statements & Responses
- Burnham: “Much bigger change is needed at a national level if everyday life is to be made more affordable again.”
- Simons (resignation letter): “I do not believe this government is delivering the urgent, radical, brave reform we need. I believe Andy Burnham can provide it.”
- Farage (Reform UK): “We look forward to the contest and we will throw absolutely everything at it.”
- NEC: No public block announced; media report that the committee is unlikely to repeat the February denial.
Criticism & Opposition
Stan Crook (retired voter) questioned Burnham’s motives, calling the move “feather his own cap.” Green Party leader Caroline Lucas urged the Greens not to contest the seat to avoid splitting the progressive vote. Critics also cited Burnham’s past Clean-Air-Zone proposal as a misstep.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on Reform’s exact local-election share (50 % vs 50.4 %). Polling estimates of Burnham’s national support vary between Survation and YouGov figures. The precise date of the by-election remains tentative pending formal notice.
Verbatim Quotes
- “They really jumped in here in a massive way.” — Colin Tinsley, local voter, on Reform’s council sweep.
- “If you’ve got people from Angela to Wes saying it, then the whole party is now in the same place on this. Andy needs to be given a shot. He is the person that connects best with the public.” — Senior Labour supporter, quoted in The Guardian.
- “We look forward to the contest and we will throw absolutely everything at it.” — Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader.
What’s Next
The NEC’s decision on Burnham’s candidacy is expected within days. The Makerfield by-election is slated for mid-June, with a potential mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester to follow if Burnham wins. Labour’s leadership timetable will hinge on the outcome.
