Full Breakdown
Texas GOP Senate Runoff: Cornyn vs. Paxton
5/16/2026, 2:36:04 AM
Runoff Overview
On May 26, Texas voters will select the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. John Cornyn. Incumbent Cornyn, in office since 2002, faces Attorney General Ken Paxton, AG since 2015. Both advanced from the March 3 primary (Cornyn 42 %, Paxton 41.5 %).
Candidate Background
Cornyn’s four-decade career includes service on the Texas Supreme Court and as a district-court judge. Paxton, a former state legislator, survived 2023 impeachment and a cleared Senate trial. Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Sen. Ted Cruz have not endorsed either candidate.
Money & Advertising
Pro-Cornyn groups outspent Paxton’s allies by more than four-to-one; Cornyn-aligned super PACs spent $69 million, far exceeding Paxton’s. Cornyn’s campaign has raised $9 million; Paxton’s accounts show $2.2 million raised and $2.1 million on hand. Ads are largely negative, with Cornyn’s spots attacking Paxton’s child-sex-abuse case handling and Paxton’s ads branding Cornyn “Caliphate Cornyn.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Early March polling gave Cornyn a narrow 42 %-40.5 % lead. A University of Houston poll (April 28-May 1) later showed Paxton at 48 % and Cornyn at 45 % (±2.83 pp). Paxton’s internal polling claims an 11-point edge; a Hobby School poll puts him three points ahead. The spread highlights a volatile electorate.
Official Statements & Responses
Gov. Abbott declined to endorse either candidate. Trump indicated he might decide “maybe relatively soon” and expressed a favorable view of both. Cornyn adviser Matt Mackowiac said the campaign is educating Texas GOP voters about Paxton’s mismanagement, behavior and child abuse cases. Paxton’s team replied that Cornyn “has a moral obligation” to support Muslim migration and called him “Caliphate Cornyn.”
Criticism & Opposition
Paxton’s ads accuse Cornyn of aligning with Islamic Relief USA, alleging extremist ties. Cornyn’s campaign counters with ads highlighting Paxton’s leniency in child-sex-abuse prosecutions and a “Ken dolls” series depicting ten alleged scandals, from “Mortgage Fraud Ken” to “Soft-on-Crime Ken.”
Verbatim Quotes
- “I haven’t made one yet, and I’m not going to make one,” — Greg Abbott, Texas Governor
- “Senator Cornyn has said that character is on the ballot in this runoff and we are educating Texas GOP voters about Ken Paxton’s mismanagement of his office, his personal enrichment, his indefensible behavior and his disqualifying judgment in child sex abuse cases,” — Matt Mackowiac, Cornyn campaign senior adviser
- “We were never going to be at dollar-for-dollar parity against the Washington, D.C. establishment and someone like John Cornyn, who’s got so many industries and corporations in his back pocket,” — Gregg Keller, Lone Star Liberty PAC spokesperson
- “It's alarming that Caliphate Cornyn has called radicals who support Islamic terrorism his 'friends' and demanded Muslim mass migration into Texas,” — Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General
- “I like them both.” — Donald Trump, former President
What's Next
Early voting runs May 18-22. The runoff winner will face Democrat Rep. James Talarico in November, a race that could affect Senate control. Observers will watch for a Trump endorsement and for how the final ad blitz shapes turnout.
