Europe Faces Potential Solar Panel Price Surge Amid Chinese Tax Reform and Rising Silver Costs

Analysts warn PV module prices could rise 10-15 %. The pressure stems from China’s planned removal of VAT export rebates on solar products effective 1 January 2027 and a 150 % surge in silver prices, which now account for 30 % of a cell’s cost. These factors threaten to reverse a decade-long price decline that made solar one of the cheapest electricity sources.

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PV panel costs fell about 90 % as capacity doubled, and battery prices also dropped. In 2024, solar supplied 23.4 % of EU electricity, yet the bloc imported €11.1 billion of panels—98 % from China. China has invested over $50 billion in new PV capacity, outpacing Europe ten-fold and creating more than 300 000 jobs since 2011.

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• Jannik Schall, co-founder of 1KOMMA5°, comments on cost dynamics.

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• InfoLink Consulting, a Taipei-based firm tracking price trends for ground-mounted and rooftop projects.

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• Chinese Ministry of Finance and State Tax Administration, which announced the VAT reform.

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• European installers, reporting isolated adjustments.

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PV panel costs have fallen ~90 % over the decade. EU solar imports in 2024 totalled €11.1 billion, 98 % from China. Silver made up about 4 000 t of PV production in 2023 (?14 % of global use) and could reach 20 % by 2030. Silver prices jumped >150 % in early 2026. 1KOMMA5° expects costs to rise 15-20 % this summer.

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Chinese authorities will scrap the VAT export rebate to curb subsidy-driven exports, a move projected to lift module prices by 10 %. Schall says raw-material cost spikes will take time to reach consumers, but residential customers may see higher prices in the medium term. Two European energy firms declined comment.

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Industry observers say price hikes may not be passed through immediately and demand could keep solar viable despite costs. A British installer reported an extra £800 (€918) charge for a standard rooftop system, showing early pressure.

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Sources disagree on when higher costs will affect end-users; some forecast near-term impact, others expect delay. No European installer gave a definitive pricing roadmap, leaving the magnitude of future price rises uncertain.

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• “Chinese manufacturers have reached scale and cost levels that cannot be matched outside of China,” — Jannik Schall, 1KOMMA5°

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• “The elimination of China’s VAT export rebates alone will cause module prices to rise by around 10 per cent,” — Jannik Schall, 1KOMMA5°

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• “Silver prices have reached 150+ per cent increases within a few weeks in the beginning of 2026, making silver the biggest cost contributor in solar panels.” — Jannik Schall, 1KOMMA5°

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• “Schall adds that while residential customers will be affected by this in the “medium term” those wanting to install PV panels can still benefit from “more favourable prices” right now.” — Jannik Schall, 1KOMMA5°

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The VAT rebate ends 1 January 2027; 1KOMMA5° expects a 15-20 % cost rise this summer, potentially eroding solar’s price edge. European installers have not disclosed future pricing.

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