Thunder vs. Spurs: 2026 Western Conference Finals Preview

The No. 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) host the No. 2-seed San Antonio Spurs (62-20) for Game 1 on May 18 at Paycom Center. The winner claims the West and likely the NBA Finals, the first 62-win series since 1998.

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Oklahoma City entered the finals on an 8-0 run, sweeping the Suns and Lakers. San Antonio beat the Timberwolves in six games after a 139-109 Game 6 win. The Spurs won four of five regular-season meetings, averaging an 11.8-point margin.

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MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31 points on 55.3 % shooting. Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama posts 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.1 blocks. Stephon Castle added 32 points, 11 rebounds in the semifinal. Chet Holmgren (17.3 PPG) and Ajay Mitchell (105-minute bench edge) back Oklahoma City; Jalen Williams returns from hamstring strain.

3 Spurs bold predictions for upset of Thunder in 2026 Western Conference Finals

Thunder’s 64-18 record tops the league; Spurs are 62-20. Spurs won the regular-season series 4-1, with a 15-point home margin. OKC averages 22.9 points off turnovers; Spurs are +3 when Wembanyama rests.

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The winner secures the West’s NBA Finals berth and could become the first back-to-back champion since 2018; a Spurs victory would launch a Wembanyama-centered era.

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Coach Mark Daigneault praised SGA’s “remarkable poise and maturity” and said Jalen Williams is “progressing.” Coach Mitch Johnson lauded Castle’s “temperament and disposition.” Wembanyama warned of “a whole different series.”

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CBS Sports and The Athletic favor the Thunder for depth and turnover edge. Critics note the Spurs’ reliance on Wembanyama, potential foul trouble, and possible disadvantage against OKC’s physical play.

Western Conference Finals Predictions: Game by Game Picks for Spurs vs Thunder

Predictions range from “Thunder in 6” to “Spurs in 7.” Sources differ on Jalen Williams’ health, and betting lines vary between –250 and –275 for OKC.

The Oklahoman

• “We know it’s going to be a whole different series and totally other challenges.” — Victor Wembanyama, Spurs forward

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• “Remarkable poise and maturity by him,” — Mark Daigneault, Thunder head coach (about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

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• “I thought his temperament and disposition led to him having the right approach and playing the right way.” — Mitch Johnson, Spurs coach (about Stephon Castle)

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• “What a treat this series is going to be. These two teams do not like each other. They will tear each other limb from limb,” — Jon Krawczynski, The Athletic insider

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Game 1 opens Monday in Oklahoma City. The series will likely hinge on SGA’s scoring and Wembanyama’s interior impact, with up to seven games to decide the West.

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