Andalusian Regional Election 2026: A Pivotal Test for Spain’s Parties

On 17 May 2026, Andalusia – Spain’s most populous autonomous community – will elect a 109-member regional parliament. The contest pits the incumbent People’s Party (PP) led by regional president Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) represented by former finance minister María Jesús Montero, and the far-right Vox under Santiago Abascal. Smaller formations include Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. The PP seeks an absolute majority (>= 55 seats) to avoid coalition dependence, while the PSOE aims to halt its historic decline.

Brussels Signal

The PP’s tenure has been shadowed by a cancer-screening scandal: more than 2 300 women were not informed of inconclusive mammograms, prompting protests and the resignation of the regional health minister. Critics allege at least six deaths, while the president maintains no fatalities. Healthcare remains the top voter concern (42.2 %). Housing affordability is also strained by overtourism, with resident groups accusing the government of prioritising short-term tourism over sustainable development.

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• People’s Party (PP) – Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla (regional president).

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• Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) – María Jesús Montero (former deputy prime minister).

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• Vox – Santiago Abascal (party leader).

Brussels Signal

• Por Andalucía – Antonio Maíllo (coalition leader).

Euronews

• Adelante Andalucía – José Ignacio García (party spokesperson).

Brussels Signal

Aggregated polls (The Objective, 11 May) forecast PP 57 seats, PSOE 28, Vox 17, Por Andalucía 5, Adelante Andalucía 2. Alternative surveys place PP between 54 and 56 seats, leaving the absolute-majority threshold uncertain. All sources agree the PSOE is projected to suffer its worst Andalusian result.

Brussels Signal

An PP absolute majority would reinforce Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s moderate centre-right platform and diminish Vox’s bargaining power. Conversely, a shortfall would revive Vox’s king-maker role, echoing recent coalitions in Extremadura and Aragón. A PSOE collapse would further weaken Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose government faces multiple corruption probes.

Brussels Signal

• Moreno urged voters to secure a “sufficient” majority for stability, emphasizing independence from other parties.

Euronews

• Montero appealed to women, youth and the middle class, warning that a PP win could lead to service cutbacks.

The Guardian

• Feijóo framed the election as a choice between Sánchez’s “conspiracy” and Moreno’s “crack team.”

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• Abascal declared that Vox will not “give away” its support after the vote and reiterated the party’s “useful vote” stance.

How Vox’s ‘national priority’ agenda shaped Andalusia's election

Health-care advocates, led by Ángela Claverol of Amama Sevilla, denounced the screening delays as “awful” and linked them to systemic under-investment. Vox’s “national priority” policy has been condemned by Sánchez, Alejandro Peña (Migrant Workers Association), and Mauricio Valiente (CEAR) as discriminatory and constitutionally dubious.

How Vox’s ‘national priority’ agenda shaped Andalusia's election

Montero initially described two Guardia Civil deaths as “workplace accidents” before correcting the record to “in the line of duty.” The number of alleged cancer-screening deaths varies between six (Claverol) and none (Moreno). Polls differ on whether the PP will achieve an outright majority, and analysts disagree on Vox’s electoral trajectory.

The Guardian

• “the lady from the past” — Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, PP regional president

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• “It’s awful; there are delays of up to three months for cancer surgery,” — Ángela Claverol, Amama Sevilla

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• “If Moreno Bonilla maintains his absolute majority and Vox fails to gain influence in forming a government, that will confirm the notion that Vox is now somewhat stagnant and the PP is gaining more ground,” — Pablo Simón, Political Scientist, Carlos III University

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• “putting Spaniards first in their own country” — Santiago Abascal, Vox leader

How Vox’s ‘national priority’ agenda shaped Andalusia's election

• “When Vox talks about ‘national priority’, what they mean is that social assistance should give preference to Spaniards,” — Agustín Ruiz Robledo, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of Granada

How Vox’s ‘national priority’ agenda shaped Andalusia's election

Election night will reveal whether the PP secures an absolute majority or must negotiate with Vox. The result will shape strategies for the anticipated 2027 general election, influence Sánchez’s political standing, and determine the trajectory of contentious policies on health, housing and immigration.

The Guardian