Republican Early Vote Surge in California Primary Signals Potential Shift Ahead of 2026 Elections

Early voting data from Political Data, Inc. (PDI) shows 905,889 ballots returned for the June 2, 2026 California primary. Republicans account for 37 % of returns, an 11-point rise from the same stage in 2022. Democratic early returns are down 13 points, while independents/others make up 22 %.

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The increase reverses the post-2020 decline in Republican early voting. Analysts attribute the rise to a return to pre-2020 participation among GOP voters. The top-two primary system also prompts some Democrats to delay ballot submission to influence which candidates advance. The shift also reflects heightened partisan mobilization ahead of the 2026 midterm cycle.

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PDI reports voters 65 + dominate early returns, delivering 54 % of ballots, while the 18-34 cohort contributed only 10 %. Racially, whites account for 67 % of early voters, Latinos 19 %, and Blacks 11 %.

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Paul Mitchell of Political Data said the Republican surge reflects a re-engagement of voters previously discouraged from early voting, while some Democrats are holding ballots to affect the top-two outcome. Former President Donald Trump, addressing GOP governors, predicted a “red wave” in 2026 state contests and said the party would “increase our margins by a lot.”

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The gubernatorial field includes Democrats Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, Katie Porter, Matt Mahan and Antonio Villaraigosa, and Republicans Steve Hilton, who leads over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Because the primary advances the top two vote-getters, the early Republican surge could alter the race, though final outcomes will depend on the full June count and November turnout. Trump’s red-wave forecast adds a partisan perspective to the contest.

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• “Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before [President Donald]Trump and other leaders discouraged it,” — Paul Mitchell, Political Data, Inc.

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• “some Democrats are holding on to their ballot to make sure their vote isn’t wasted, so that they get to vote for someone that makes it to the top two.” — Paul Mitchell, Political Data, Inc.

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• “I think we’re going to do great. I think we’re going to really increase our margins by a lot.” — Donald Trump, Former President

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• “California Republicans are currently killing it in the early vote, so I decided to map it out,” — Central Valley Politics, X account

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The California Secretary of State will publish the complete early-vote tally later in June, followed by the final primary count. The two leading candidates will face off in the November 2026 general election, a race watched for signs of the projected Republican resurgence.

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