Andalusia Regional Election: A Crucial Test for Spain's Political Landscape

Andalusia, with 8.7 million people (?18 % of Spain), controls health, education and housing. After nearly four decades of Socialist rule, the Popular Party (PP) won the regional presidency in 2019. The May 17, 2026 election is seen as a dress rehearsal for the national vote. Main contenders are incumbent PP president Juanma Moreno Bonilla, PSOE candidate María Jesús Montero (former finance minister and deputy prime minister), and Vox. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo and PM Pedro Sánchez are involved.

The Local (Spain)

Turnout at 2 p.m. was 37.2%, three points above 2022. In the 109-seat parliament, polls average PP 55 seats (the majority threshold), PSOE 28, Vox 16, and Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía about five. The PP aims for an outright majority to avoid a Vox coalition, but some surveys suggest it may fall short, leaving a partnership uncertain.

The Local (Spain)

Moreno said Andalusia’s result “clearly determines other things as well,” framing the vote as “harmony or discord.” Montero warned “we are always concerned about the participation in elections being adequate.” Feijóo called a PP win “worth double: to ensure Andalusia wins and to change the government of Spain.” Sánchez cautioned that a PP-Vox pact promotes “xenophobia, racism, segregation and confrontation.”

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Montero accused Moreno of a healthcare scandal, asking “Why don’t they release the data? Are they afraid the truth will be known?” PP leaders retorted that Montero’s tenure as finance minister made Andalusia a “fiscal hell.” Analysts note the PP’s willingness to negotiate with Vox in Extremadura and Aragon, a stance that diverges from most European conservatives’ “sanitary cordon” against the far right.

The Local (Spain)

• “What happens in Andalusia clearly determines other things as well,” — Juanma Moreno, Popular Party leader, after voting in Málaga.

The Straits Times

• “We are always concerned about the participation in elections being adequate,” — María Jesús Montero, PSOE candidate, after casting her ballot in Seville.

The Straits Times

• “is worth double: to ensure Andalusia wins and to change the government of Spain” — Alberto Núñez Feijóo, PP national leader, at a campaign rally.

The Local (Spain)

• “Why don't they release the data? Are they afraid the truth will be known?” — María Jesús Montero, during a televised debate on the healthcare scandal.

The Local (Spain)

Most polls give the PP 55 seats, but some surveys suggest it may fall short, creating uncertainty about whether a coalition with Vox will be required.

The Local (Spain)

The final count will show whether the PP reaches 55 seats and governs alone or must partner with Vox. A PP-Vox pact would be a regional alliance since the 2019 Andalusian defeat and could shape party strategies ahead of the 2027 general election. Analysts say Sánchez may pivot to foreign policy and economic growth or an early national election, depending on the regional outcome.

The Local (Spain)