U.S. Net Outflow Fuels Relocation Tour Surge

In 2025 the United States recorded its first net negative migration in five decades, with more people leaving than arriving. Brookings estimates net outflow between 10,000-295,000 and voluntary moves between 210,000-405,000.

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Expatsi, founded in 2022, hosted a two-day Move Abroad Con in San Diego for about 600 Americans. Brookings supplied the migration data. Attendees included Phoenix couple Jesse Derr (41) and Jess Yeastadt (45) and San Diego government worker Von Bradley (45).

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Among participants, 89 % cited political reasons, 73 % sought adventure or growth, and 57 % wanted to save money. Average monthly relocation budget was $3,856; tickets cost $500-$1,000. Visa fees are a few hundred dollars, while shipping can reach tens of thousands—one Chicago couple spent over $20,000 to move to Valencia, Spain.

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Political factors dominate: the Supreme Court’s removal of the federal right to abortion and weakened Voting Rights Act were called signs the country is “going backwards.” Mexico’s 2024 election of President Claudia Sheinbaum and gender-equality laws also appeal to participants. Lower cost-of-living and lifestyle preferences, like walkable cities and healthier food, further influence decisions.

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Brookings researchers said restrictive immigration policies and deportation efforts “play a role” in the surge. Expatsi co-founder Jen Barnett said the conference gave attendees “zero unknowns” about visas, taxes and health insurance.

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Jesse Derr said the event turned “insurmountable” plans into actionable steps; Von Bradley described the information as “like drinking through a fire hose.” Both will watch the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, believing a Democratic majority could affect their relocation timelines.

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Brookings reports two overlapping net-outflow ranges: 10,000-295,000 overall and 210,000-405,000 for voluntary moves, without reconciling the discrepancy.

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A sustained net exodus could reshape the nation’s age structure, labor pool and political composition, especially if politically motivated migrants disproportionately represent certain groups. Policymakers may address the drivers cited by emigrants to curb further outflow.

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• “It was interesting to me to see just how many people are considering this,” — Von Bradley, government worker

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• “was like drinking through a fire hose, but I took a lot of notes, I collected a lot of leaflets, and so I have information to fall back on.” — Von Bradley

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• “He points to recent policies affecting reproductive rights, like the Supreme Court's decision to remove the federal constitutional right to abortion, as well as its rulings weakening the Voting Rights Act, which he considers signals that the country is "going backwards.” — Jesse Derr, on U.S. political developments

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The couple’s timeline hinges on the 2026 midterm results; monitoring Brookings migration estimates will show whether the 2025 surge is a temporary reaction or a longer-term demographic shift.

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