Story perspectives

Oil Prices Rise as Tehran Talks Stall, Hormuz Gap Looms

5/18/2026

Summary

Jeff Currie Warns

U.S. markets posted Brent at $110.73 per barrel (+1.4%) and WTI at $106.86 per barrel (+1.3%) as Washington-Tehran talks stalled.
Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman of Abaxx Commodity Exchange, warned Europe could face oil shortages and prices may become non-linear.
The International Energy Agency said stockpiles are depleting while Mike Haigh of Société Générale warned a 52-day Hormuz gap could delay relief until August and lift prices toward $150 per barrel.

Summary

U.S. SPR Drawdown

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell 8.6 million barrels in a week, leaving about 384 million barrels.
JP Morgan says only roughly 800 million of the 8.5 billion global barrels are readily drawable without operational stress.
The International Energy Agency’s coordinated 400 million-barrel release helped push global draw to about 4 million barrels per day in March-April 2026.
The Atlantic Council estimates refilling the drawn stocks could require an extra 1.8 million barrels per day for a full year.

Summary

Jeff Currie Forecasts

Jeff Currie says the market is “borrowing oil from the future” and warns that speed the 100 million-barrel cushion vanishes will dictate prices.
He predicts tightening supply at the front end will steepen backwardation, raise crack spreads and shift trader focus to near-term pricing.
Currie says the industry treats a 100 million-barrel minimum tank level as the threshold, warning that a full draw would exhaust the market before summer driving season peaks.

Summary

IEA Warns

IEA said global oil inventories fell 250 million barrels in March-April 2026, about 4 million barrels per day.
Production cuts 14 million barrels per day since the Hormuz blockade pushed Gulf losses beyond 1 billion barrels.
Kpler reported a Middle-East supply loss of 782 million barrels since Feb 28, to hit 1 billion barrels by end-May.
IEA raised its Americas supply-growth outlook by 600 000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels and warned Asia and Europe face shortage risk.

History

Historical Context

After the October 1973 Yom Kippur War, OAPEC imposed a 5 % production cut and an oil embargo that pushed U.S. gasoline prices above $3 per gallon, prompting the United States to build a strategic petroleum reserve. The 2026 Hormuz blockade has revived those tensions, with the International Energy Agency reporting a 250-million-barrel inventory drop and a weekly draw of 8.6 million barrels from that reserve.

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Jeff Currie Warns

U.S. markets posted Brent at $110.73 per barrel (+1.4%) and WTI at $106.86 per barrel (+1.3%) as Washington-Tehran talks stalled.
Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman of Abaxx Commodity Exchange, warned Europe could face oil shortages and prices may become non-linear.
The International Energy Agency said stockpiles are depleting while Mike Haigh of Société Générale warned a 52-day Hormuz gap could delay relief until August and lift prices toward $150 per barrel.

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