Trump’s War with Iran Fuels Approval Decline and Midterm Headwinds

A New York Times/Siena poll of 1,507 voters (May 11-15 2026) found Trump’s approval at 37 percent, while disapproval was 59 percent (Hill) and 69 percent (NYT). Two-thirds say the Iran war was a mistake; nearly three-quarters of independents agree.

New York Times

• 66 % of all voters and 75 % of independents said the war was a mistake.

Seattle Times

• 64 % disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy; the share rating the economy “poor” rose to almost 50 %.

Seattle Times

• 47 % of independents said Trump’s policies hurt them personally, and 70 % of Republicans favored resuming military action if a nuclear deal failed, while 52 % of the overall electorate opposed further action without a deal.

Seattle Times

Redistricting added an estimated six-to-ten GOP-friendly House districts, yet analysts warn Trump’s sub-30 % approval—especially on the economy and war—could cause a record loss for Republican congressional candidates, as low-approval leaders historically hurt their parties.

The Hill

Trump told reporters the situation “does not motivate me — even a little bit” and that he “doesn’t think about Americans’ financial situation.” Kevin Madden said fundamentals “are flashing” and consultant said “turning a ship” will take time.

The Hill

Susan Del Percio argued Trump has failed to improve lives, except a group with 401(k) gains. Joel Payne warned focusing on Trump’s failings “won’t change mistrust” toward Democrats. Matthew Berryhill said “isn’t fighting back enough.”

The Hill

Brent Klein Jr., a Missouri Trump voter, said he is “very pissed off” that the president has not kept promises. Francine Alfano, a New Jersey food-truck owner, linked rising gas and food costs directly to the war.

Seattle Times

Disapproval rates differ—59 % (Hill) versus 69 % (NYT)—and the polls omit how upcoming congressional war-powers debates may shift opinions.

Seattle Times

• “If he’s sitting in the low 30s as we approach November, Republicans are screwed, period, hard stop,” — Unnamed Republican consultant, strategist

The Hill

• “There is nothing that Trump has done to improve the lives of people that have supported him since being elected, with the exception of a small sliver who are happy with their 401(k),” — Susan Del Percio, Republican strategist

The Hill

• “He’s not doing what he said he was going to do,” — Brent Klein Jr., Republican voter, Branson, Missouri

Seattle Times

• “I think nipping it in the bud before they can get a nuclear weapon is in our best interest,” — Amanda Mann, nurse, Myrtle Creek, Oregon

Seattle Times

The November 2026 midterms will test whether GOP candidates can offset Trump’s low-30s approval. Congressional hearings on war powers and any diplomatic breakthrough with Iran are expected to dominate the political agenda in the coming months.

The Hill