JPMorgan Lowers 2026 Gold Price Forecast

JPMorgan Chase cut its average 2026 gold price estimate to $5,243 per ounce, down from $5,708, citing weak short-term investor demand reflected in low COMEX futures open interest, thin trading volume and modest ETF inflows. The bank still expects gold to reach about $6,000 per ounce by year-end 2026 if demand rebounds in the second half.

JPMorgan lowers 2026 gold price forecastReutersGold’s Balancing Act: JPMorgan Trims 2026 Outlook as Yields, Dollar, and India’s Buying Freeze C

Gold has slipped as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.54%, the dollar strengthened and inflation data kept expectations of higher-for-longer rates alive. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to delay purchases and New Delhi raised import duties to 15%, dampening demand from the world’s second-largest consumer. Low ETF inflows and stagnant COMEX activity further reflect the short-term weakness.

Gold’s Balancing Act: JPMorgan Trims 2026 Outlook as Yields, Dollar, and India’s Buying Freeze C

Goldman Sachs keeps a $5,400 year-end target, UBS sees $5,900–$6,200, and ANZ trimmed its forecast to $5,600, all citing continued central-bank buying as a structural support.

Gold’s Balancing Act: JPMorgan Trims 2026 Outlook as Yields, Dollar, and India’s Buying Freeze C

Spot gold trades near $4,569 per ounce, down about 14% since the Feb 28 U.S.–Iran clash. Weekly and monthly declines are 3.7% and 6%. Central banks bought 244 tonnes in Q1 2024; Goldman Sachs projects 60 tonnes per month thereafter. The price sits below its 50-day moving average of $4,715.83, with an RSI of 49.8.

Gold’s Balancing Act: JPMorgan Trims 2026 Outlook as Yields, Dollar, and India’s Buying Freeze C

JPMorgan analysts noted market quietness and low demand metrics but expect a rebound once energy-price and inflation uncertainty eases. Goldman Sachs and UBS reaffirm long-term bullish views, pointing to institutional buying. India’s policy shift aims to protect the rupee and trim the trade deficit, while China’s speculative positions have been reduced.

Gold’s Balancing Act: JPMorgan Trims 2026 Outlook as Yields, Dollar, and India’s Buying Freeze C

Observers argue that short-term macro pressures outweigh the safe-haven premium, noting that “the market is following interest-rate logic, not the crisis reflex.”

Gold’s Balancing Act: JPMorgan Trims 2026 Outlook as Yields, Dollar, and India’s Buying Freeze C

Forecasts agree on a bullish long-term trend but differ on the exact 2026 price range. Data on investor sentiment beyond ETF flows remain scarce, leaving uncertainty about the timing of a demand rebound.

Reuters

• “dried to a trickle.” — JPMorgan analysts

Reuters

• “We retain our bullish medium-term outlook and forecast that after the immense energy and inflation uncertainty clears, gold demand from investors and central banks ?will again re-intensify over 2H26.” — JPMorgan analysts

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• “We maintain our positive medium-term outlook and expect that, once the uncertainties surrounding energy and inflation subside, demand for gold from investors and central banks will pick up again in the second half of 2026.” — JPMorgan analysts

JPMorgan lowers 2026 gold price forecast

• “The market is following interest-rate logic, not the crisis reflex,” — market observer

Gold’s Balancing Act: JPMorgan Trims 2026 Outlook as Yields, Dollar, and India’s Buying Freeze C

Gold’s path will depend on U.S. yield trends, dollar movements and central-bank buying. Upcoming U.S. inflation releases and Federal Reserve policy meetings are cited as near-term catalysts for price direction.

Reuters