Hormuz Closure Pushes U.S. Gas Prices to Record Levels

The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-third of global oil, has been effectively shut since early March after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. National gasoline averages have risen to about $4.50 per gallon, a more than 50 % increase since the conflict began. Analysts expect Brent crude futures near $130 a barrel this quarter, with some warning of a jump to $150 if hostilities continue.

CNN

Average pump price is $4.53 per gallon (up from $4.12 a month ago and $3.18 last year). Taxes and fees total 51 cents per gallon, including an 18-cent federal gas tax. U.S. crude output sits at 13.7 million bpd, essentially unchanged from 13.8 million bpd at end-2025; the Energy Information Administration projects flat output of 13.6 million bpd in 2026. A 122-day federal tax holiday would cut $11.5 billion from the Highway Trust Fund.

NBC News

White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers called the price spikes “short-term, temporary disruptions” that will ease once Hormuz traffic normalizes. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the administration “supports all measures that can be taken to lower the price at the pump.” President Donald Trump announced his intent to suspend the 18-cent federal gas tax, noting that congressional approval is required.

CNN

Energy strategist Jan Stuart warned that “there’s precious little the administration can do” beyond reopening the strait. Jason Bordoff said a tax holiday would “boost fuel demand at a time of low supply,” while Mark Zandi dismissed it as a “gimmick.” Clark Williams-Derry noted it is unlikely oil, gasoline and diesel prices will return to February levels soon.

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• “There’s precious little the administration can do,” — Jan Stuart, Global Energy Strategist, Piper Sandler

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• “This is a problem that will only be solved with one policy: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Period. End of story,” — Bob McNally, Founder & President, Rapidan Energy Group

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• “boost fuel demand at a time of low supply,” — Jason Bordoff, Founding Director, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University

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• “It is a gimmick. He was right,” — Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

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Jan Stuart expects Brent around $130 a barrel this quarter, while Bob McNally warns of a possible rise to $150 if the standoff deepens. The Energy Information Administration projects flat U.S. crude output of 13.6 million bpd in 2026, whereas some analysts anticipate a modest increase to 14.1 million bpd in 2027. No source provides a clear timeline for a diplomatic reopening of the strait.

CNN

McNally estimates a 70 % chance of renewed fighting within four to six weeks, which could further damage regional infrastructure and lift prices. Congress is expected to debate a federal gas-tax suspension, while the administration continues diplomatic outreach to reopen the strait.

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