Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

Brazil’s 2026 Selic Forecast Rises to 13.25% Amid Higher Inflation

5/19/2026

50 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Economists lifted their forecast for Brazil's Selic rate to 13.25% in 2026, up from 13%.
The Ministry of Economy raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.5% and said the oil price estimate rose 25% to $91.25 per barrel, increasing inflation pressure.
The government added gasoline and diesel subsidies and a debt-renegotiation program to ease strain.
Economic activity fell 0.67% in March, with the central bank’s GDP proxy indicating a slowdown.

1 of 1

Story summary

Economists lifted their forecast for Brazil's Selic rate to 13.25% in 2026, up from 13%.
The Ministry of Economy raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.5% and said the oil price estimate rose 25% to $91.25 per barrel, increasing inflation pressure.
The government added gasoline and diesel subsidies and a debt-renegotiation program to ease strain.
Economic activity fell 0.67% in March, with the central bank’s GDP proxy indicating a slowdown.