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NBER Study Debunks Trump: Deportations Lower Jobs, Wages Flat

5/19/2026

Summary

Story summary

A National Bureau of Economic Research study disputes President Donald Trump’s claim that deportations raise jobs and wages.
The study compares communities with spikes from January 2025 to October 2025 to those without.
It finds a 5 percent employment drop for male undocumented workers and a 1.3 percent drop for male American-born workers without a college degree.
Construction jobs fell, with American-born workers losing more positions than the remaining undocumented, while wages stayed flat.

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Story summary

A National Bureau of Economic Research study disputes President Donald Trump’s claim that deportations raise jobs and wages.
The study compares communities with spikes from January 2025 to October 2025 to those without.
It finds a 5 percent employment drop for male undocumented workers and a 1.3 percent drop for male American-born workers without a college degree.
Construction jobs fell, with American-born workers losing more positions than the remaining undocumented, while wages stayed flat.