Full Breakdown
California Governor Primary Tightens: Becerra and Hilton Lead
5/20/2026, 1:51:58 AM
Poll Snapshot
The Evitarus poll of 1,200 likely voters (May 14-16) shows Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 22% and Democrat Xavier Becerra at 21%. Billionaire Tom Steyer trails at 15%; Katie Porter 7%, Matt Mahan 4%, and Republican Chad Bianco 10%. Margin of error is ±2.83%. Ballots have been mailed to 23.1 million voters and early-voting began earlier this month.
Background
California’s top-two primary advances the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, to the November general election. Party leaders feared a Republican sweep, so the state Democratic Party began tracking polls in March. The race tightened after front-runner Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew in early April amid misconduct allegations, fragmenting the Democratic field. Becerra’s support rose from 4% in early-April polls to 21% in the Evitarus poll.
Key Candidates
Xavier Becerra – former Biden Cabinet member, ex-California attorney general, and U.S. representative. Tom Steyer – billionaire self-funding Democrat. Steve Hilton – Republican former Fox News host and poll front-runner. Chad Bianco – Republican Riverside County sheriff, second-place Republican.
Official Responses
Becerra told reporters that voter scrutiny has boosted his campaign and that Californians are wary of a billionaire “buying the office.” Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks said the race is “closer to where we had hoped to be with a strong Democrat moving into the general election,” noting consolidation among parties.
Criticism
Steyer’s campaign aired ads attacking Becerra’s record and highlighting Chevron donations. Becerra called the ads “lies” and warned voters against a candidate seeking to “buy the office.”
Conflicting Reports
The ±2.83% margin of error creates uncertainty for candidates near the 20% threshold. Early-voting turnout figures remain unreleased, limiting insight into voter behavior before the June 2 primary.
Quotes
- “They’re really looking closely at who’s out there, and I think I’ve been one of the beneficiaries of folks looking for a place that they can feel comfortable, where they can trust.” — Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services
- “He’s spending like no one before, and he’s hitting like no one before, and so far, it hasn’t made a difference.” — Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services
- “Certainly we’re closer to where we had hoped to be with a strong Democrat moving into the general election.” — Rusty Hicks, chairman, California Democratic Party
- “This race isn’t over. We’ve certainly seen a lot of twists and turns to this point, but you do see some clear consolidation taking place for both Democrats and Republicans.” — Rusty Hicks, chairman, California Democratic Party
Future Outlook
Ballots will be counted after the June 2 primary, determining which two candidates advance under the top-two system. Early-voting sites stay open, and the Democratic Party expects further consolidation as voters finalize choices.
