Full Breakdown
Alabama Senate Primary: Race to Replace Tommy Tuberville
5/20/2026, 5:23:55 AM
Core Event
Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor. The winner is expected to win the general election in deep-red Alabama. If no candidate exceeds 50 percent, the top two advance to a June runoff.
Candidates
The main Republican contenders are Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL-1), who is Trump-endorsed and describes himself as a “true conservative”; Attorney General Steve Marshall, a former district attorney with a base in the Huntsville/Tennessee Valley; and Jared Hudson, a former Navy SEAL, nonprofit founder, and Birmingham native. Additional candidates include Seth Burton, a Huntsville-born former Navy submarine commander, bringing the Republican field to six.
Polling Landscape
Kalshi market odds favor Moore (76 percent) over Hudson (26 percent). Quantus Insights poll shows Hudson at 35.8 percent, Moore at 26.9 percent, and Marshall at 13.5 percent. An Alabama Daily News poll gives Moore 23 percent, Hudson 19 percent, Marshall 14 percent, with 40 percent of voters undecided. Republican pollster Michael Lowry called the race a “tossup,” noting that the candidates have not connected with voters.
Official Statements
Donald Trump, speaking at a tele-rally, endorsed Moore, calling him a true America First Patriot and praising his loyalty, while emphasizing alignment on border security, veterans, and election integrity. Moore highlighted his early support for Trump, noting he was the first elected official to endorse Trump in 2015.
Criticism & Uncertainty
Analysts note the divergent polls, raising questions about the impact of Trump’s endorsement. Lowry’s comment on candidates’ failure to connect underscores a voter-engagement gap. The new congressional map has drawn criticism for potentially diluting Black voting power, raising fairness concerns in the broader electoral context.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Market odds favor Moore, while the Quantus poll places Hudson ahead and the Alabama Daily News poll shows a narrow Moore lead with many undecided voters. No definitive turnout or regional-support data are available before the primary.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This is a tossup,” — Michael Lowry, Republican pollster
- “[Moore] is a true America First Patriot who's been with me from the very beginning.” — Donald Trump
- “Alabama, I love you, and I think you love me,” — Donald Trump
- “proud to say I was the first elected official in the nation to endorse him in 2015.” — Barry Moore
Outlook
If no candidate reaches 50 percent, a June runoff will extend the campaign. The primary winner is expected to secure the Senate seat, influencing the Republican Senate majority and the 2026 midterm balance, especially as the new congressional map could affect House control. Additionally, four congressional districts will hold special primaries in August to implement the new map.
