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Strong El Niño Likely, 61% Chance, Risks Food Supplies

5/20/2026

24 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center report a 61% chance of El Niño, an 82% chance this summer, and a 37% chance of strong intensity.
Sea-surface temps half a degree warmer than 1997-98, raising odds of a super El Niño.
2023 Science study links El Niño to multi-year slowdown and $5.7 trillion losses from the 1997-98 event.
Groups warn of food shortages, water stress and disease outbreaks in southeastern Africa and Southeast Asia.

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Story summary

NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center report a 61% chance of El Niño, an 82% chance this summer, and a 37% chance of strong intensity.
Sea-surface temps half a degree warmer than 1997-98, raising odds of a super El Niño.
2023 Science study links El Niño to multi-year slowdown and $5.7 trillion losses from the 1997-98 event.
Groups warn of food shortages, water stress and disease outbreaks in southeastern Africa and Southeast Asia.