Full Breakdown
U.S.–Israel Plan to Install Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s Leader Falters
5/21/2026, 4:53:41 AM
The Proposed Regime-Change Scheme
In late February 2026, U.S. and Israeli officials outlined a multistage plan to replace Iran’s leadership after an opening aerial campaign killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. The scheme called for installing former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—a hard-line anti-Israel figure under house arrest—as a transitional head of state. An Israeli strike on his Tehran residence, intended to free him from guards, wounded him, prompted his disillusionment, and he has not reappeared publicly.
Background and War Objectives
President Donald Trump presented the February operation, called “Operation Epic Fury,” as a campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic-missile capacity, dismantle its nuclear-enrichment facilities, sink its navy and weaken its proxies. He also cited the 2023 Venezuelan “Delcy Rodríguez” model, urging a “someone from within” to assume power after the regime’s decapitation.
Timeline of Key Events
- 28 Feb 2026: U.S.–Israeli airstrikes kill Khamenei and other top officials.
- 28 Feb 2026 (opening day): Israeli aircraft hit a security outpost near Ahmadinejad’s Narmak home, killing three IRGC guards and wounding Ahmadinejad.
- Following weeks: Ahmadinejad’s whereabouts and health remain unconfirmed; no public appearances reported.
Official Statements and Responses
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the United States met its military objectives and that negotiators were pursuing a deal to end Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli Mossad declined comment. U.S. officials briefed on the plan described it as Israeli-origin, later approved by Washington, while noting internal skepticism about Ahmadinejad’s suitability.
Criticism and Opposition
Security analyst Beni Sabti of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies called the scheme “implausible” given Ahmadinejad’s anti-Israel record. Sources noted Israeli planners doubted a Holocaust-denying figure could secure legitimacy in Iran.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
Accounts vary on whether the strike on Ahmadinejad’s home was a “jailbreak operation” or an assassination attempt. The New York Times quoted an associate describing it as a rescue, while other outlets initially reported his death. How he was recruited and his present condition remain unknown.
Verbatim Quotes
- “He is a businessman and therefore capable of calculating cost-benefit and making a decision. We tell him: Let’s calculate the long-term cost-benefit of our two countries and not be shortsighted.” — Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 2019 interview.
- “From the outset, President Trump was clear about his goals for Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles, dismantle their production facilities, sink their navy, and weaken their proxy,” — Anna Kelly, White House.
- “had a very good chance of succeeding” — David Barnea, Mossad director (reported).
Why It Matters
The plan shows U.S. and Israeli war design included political engineering. Its failure underscores the difficulty of imposing a successor in Tehran, casts doubt on future regime-change schemes, and may shape regional assessments of Iran’s durability.
