CSIRO Climate Model Cuts Undermine Australia’s Global Forecast Role

In May 2026 CSIRO announced the redundancy of about 100 scientists, including five of the fifteen researchers on the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (Access). The cuts are part of a plan to eliminate 300-350 research positions after 818 support-staff redundancies in 2025. CSIRO’s Senate testimony cited roughly 60 staff on Access, a figure contested by experts who estimate a core team of 12-15 scientists.

The Guardian

The Albanese government added $387 million to CSIRO’s $1 billion annual budget, plus a $278 million 2025 boost for infrastructure such as the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness. CEO Doug Hilton said the cuts will proceed despite the new funding.

The Guardian

Access supplies climate projections for governments, councils, industry and farmers. Scientists warn losing core modelling capacity could block Australia from contributing to the IPCC’s seventh assessment report (2028-2029), damage its credibility and force reliance on external southern-hemisphere models.

The Guardian

A CSIRO spokesperson said the agency will keep providing climate data, models and scenarios while refocusing resources away from atmospheric chemistry, Indo-Pacific ocean dynamics and some operational support to match future priorities. Science Minister Tim Ayres declined comment on the cuts’ specific impact.

The Guardian

Researchers say the cuts make Australia “suboptimal” in atmospheric and oceanographic modelling and erode its standing in global assessments. Andy Hogg warned rebuilding would cost twice as much; Christian Jakob called the loss a “basic foundational capability” and voiced anger at the diminished credibility.

The Guardian

CSIRO’s Senate testimony listed about 60 staff on Access, while external experts say the core team is 12-15 scientists, with five facing redundancy. CSIRO claims minimal impact; scientists argue the cuts render the agency “suboptimal” in core climate modelling.

The Guardian

Without a restored modelling team, Australia risks missing the 2028-2029 IPCC submission window and may need to secure external funding to rebuild capacity, a process experts estimate could cost twice the current investment.

The Guardian

• “If you look at the team of people on the core capability it’s 12 to 15, and we understand that it’s about five that are going,” — Andy Hogg, Professor of Ocean and Climate Modelling, Director of Access-NRI

The Guardian

• “Australia will no longer be seen as a credible contributor to international assessment of climate change. Full stop,” — Christian Jakob, Professor, Monash University School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment

The Guardian

• “I feel angry. I have been a climate modeller for 30 years. It will mean I can’t stand up in front of people and say we’re giving the best information we can.” — Christian Jakob, Professor, Monash University

The Guardian

• “That capacity will be difficult to rebuild. It would cost twice as much to get it back in later,” — Andy Hogg, Professor of Ocean and Climate Modelling

The Guardian