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IEA predicts 30% EV share in 2026 despite Q1 dip.

5/20/2026

47 7 Full Breakdown

Summary

IEA Forecasts EV

IEA’s EV Outlook 2026 forecasts 23 million electric-vehicle sales in 2026, roughly 30 % of all new cars.
Global EV sales rose 20 % in 2025 to over 20 million, representing one-quarter of new car registrations.
In Q1 2026, global EV sales fell 8 % after China and the United States cut incentives.
Chinese automakers supplied 60 % of 2025 electric-vehicle sales.
China produced about 75 % of the 22 million EV units sold in 2025.

Summary

Octopus EVs Surge

Octopus Electric Vehicles reported a 95% rise in new-EV demand and a 160% jump in used-EV demand in April, calling it an “inflection point.”
Carwow Germany data showed Chinese makers’ enquiries in Europe surged dramatically, with BYD up 25,000% in Q1, Leapmotor up 436% and Xpeng up 153%.
The UK’s zero-emission vehicle rules fine non-compliant firms £12,000 per vehicle, rising to 33% of that amount this year.

History

Historical Context

In 2009 the Recovery and Reinvestment Act allocated $2.4 billion to jump-start plug-in electric vehicles, spurring early sales of the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt and boosting market share. The incentive grew U.S. plug-in stock to 4.7 million units by 2023 (9.1 % of new-car sales), while Chinese firms BYD and Xpeng now dominate global supply.

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IEA Forecasts EV

IEA’s EV Outlook 2026 forecasts 23 million electric-vehicle sales in 2026, roughly 30 % of all new cars.
Global EV sales rose 20 % in 2025 to over 20 million, representing one-quarter of new car registrations.
In Q1 2026, global EV sales fell 8 % after China and the United States cut incentives.
Chinese automakers supplied 60 % of 2025 electric-vehicle sales.
China produced about 75 % of the 22 million EV units sold in 2025.

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