Full Breakdown
2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Field, Odds, and Course Overhaul
5/20/2026, 11:31:38 PM
Tournament Overview
The 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson begins Thursday, May 21, at 8 a.m. ET on the par-71, 7,385-yard TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. The event features a 147-player field with a top-65-and-ties cut after two rounds. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler (World No. 1) returns to defend his title; other top-50 players include Si Woo Kim (rank 24) and Jordan Spieth (rank 47). The tournament follows the PGA Championship and precedes the next major.
Background & Course Renovation
Since its 2021 debut, TPC Craig Ranch has produced winning scores in the 23- to 31-under range. After Scheffler’s eight-stroke victory in 2025, Lanny Wadkins oversaw a $25 million redesign. Changes include new Bentgrass greens, Zoysia fairways, Bermuda rough, narrowed landing zones, and a 200-yard reduction in overall length. The redesign aims to increase the penalty for missed fairways and to test ball-striking more rigorously.
Key Contenders and Longshots
- Scottie Scheffler – odds range from +155 (SportsLine) to +170 (NY Post); recent form includes top-15 finishes at the PGA Championship.
- Jordan Spieth – odds listed at +1600 (CBS Sports), +1750 (NY Post); recent top-20 finishes in majors but recent putting struggles.
- Si Woo Kim – odds around +1300 (CBS Sports); strong recent strokes-gained off the tee.
- Brooks Koepka – odds near +2500; high strokes-gained approach and proximity metrics.
- Pierceson Coody – longshot at +4000 (CBS Sports) and +3500 (Rotowire); 26th in strokes-gained off the tee and strong recent top-25 finishes.
- Tom Kim – odds +7200 (Outkick) to +8000 (Rotowire); three PGA Tour wins and recent top-10 at Myrtle Beach.
Data & Statistics
- Winning scores historically: 23-under to 31-under; average winning score last five years: –25.6.
- Field strength: only two other top-20 OWGR players besides Scheffler.
- Odds spread: favorite Scheffler (+155 to +170), longshots exceed +70,000.
- Strokes-gained approach weighted 25 % in the SportsLine model; birdie-or-better gained weighted 20 %.
Official Statements & Responses
- The tournament schedule confirms play starts at 8 a.m. ET on May 21 and will run for four rounds.
- Course specifications after renovation: par 71, 7,385 yards, Bentgrass greens, Zoysia fairways, Bermuda rough.
- The PGA Tour notes that the field includes 147 competitors with a cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes.
Criticism & Opposition
Analysts from SportsLine and Outkick criticize the heavy favoritism on Scheffler, noting his recent putting decline and the model’s decision to “fade” Spieth despite his familiarity with the venue. The model also questions the value of Scheffler’s short odds, suggesting a potential regression from his 31-under performance last year.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Scheffler’s odds appear as +155 (SportsLine), +165 (CBS Sports), and +170 (NY Post).
- Spieth’s odds are listed as +1600 (CBS Sports), +1750 (NY Post), and +1600 (Rotowire).
- Predictions for Coody vary between +3500 (Rotowire) and +4000 (CBS Sports).
- No official comment from the tournament organizers addresses the impact of the renovation on scoring expectations.
Verbatim Quotes
- “No days (weeks) off” is my mantra when it comes to betting on the PGA TOUR. — Outkick author
- “If it weren't for native Texans Scottie Scheffler (reigning Byron Nelson champion) and Jordan Spieth wanting to play in their home state, this field would be brutal.” — Outkick author
- “Almost certainly but with the way he has been going, do I want to bet that he will win at such a short price? No, thank you. Scheffler was near dead last in the field last week, putting on the Bentgrass greens at Aronimink. You also have to figure that he'll regress off of last year's crazy, 31-under par performance here at Craig Ranch. As far as the putting, the PGA Championship was the third straight week for Scheffler that saw his work with the flatstick take a dip as it did also at The Masters and in his next start at Doral. With my belief that much of this week's event will be decided with the putter, again, making a play at this price is not where I want to go.” — Brady Kannon, SportsLine analyst
- “The CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks Sports Illustrated: Brooks Koepka In the simplest terms, Brooks Koepka checks the boxes we’re looking for this week.” — Fansided author
- “Kim’s irons have been ridiculous lately, and this course basically rewards anybody capable of stuffing wedges and making putts in bunches.” — Athlon Sports author
What’s Next
Round 1 concludes Thursday; the leaderboard will determine which contenders remain after the cut. Betting markets will adjust based on early scores, especially as the renovated greens and rough influence putting and approach performance. The tournament’s outcome will affect PGA Tour momentum heading into the summer schedule and may reshape odds for upcoming signature events.
