Full Breakdown
Iran War, Drought, and Soaring Input Costs Threaten U.S. Farm Viability
5/21/2026, 12:48:49 AM
The Converging Crisis on the Plains
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February, a direct result of the Iran-Israel conflict, has driven up the price of Gulf-origin fuels and nitrogen fertilizers. At the same time, a severe drought now blankets more than 60 % of the continental United States, up from 43 % at the start of 2026. Together, these shocks are compressing farm profit margins across Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Nebraska, prompting growers to question whether they can remain in business.
Background: Drought and Geopolitical Shock
U.S. Drought Monitor data show the drought-affected area expanding from 33 % in 2025 to 60 % in May 2026. The war-induced shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz cut off a major supply route for diesel and urea, a key fertilizer produced in the Gulf. The Kentucky Farm Bureau testified before a Senate agriculture committee that farm diesel prices have risen 72 % since the closure, while urea costs jumped 55 % and another nitrogen fertilizer rose 33 %.
Key Stakeholders on the Ground
- Scott Irlbeck, a wheat farmer near Tulia, Texas, faces a stunted wheat field and is waiting for insurance to declare a total loss.
- Tommy Salisbury, who grows wheat, sorghum and soybeans in Tulsa County, Oklahoma, says current input costs erase the benefits of the Trump-era $12 billion aid package.
- Kody Carson, a cotton and wheat producer in Olton, Texas, reports winter-wheat yields of only 18-20 bushels per acre versus an expected 80.
- Tom Gregory, a cotton, corn and sorghum farmer in Petersburg, Texas, is coping with fertilizer prices that climbed from $402 to $558 per ton between February and April.
- Amanda De Oliveira Silva, Oklahoma State University agronomist, warns that rain will not reverse existing damage.
- Clarence Winter, South Dakota State University extension agronomist, notes farmers are reconsidering fertilizer applications for wheat planted last fall.
Data & Statistics
- Farm diesel up 72 %; urea up 55 %; other nitrogen fertilizer up 33 %.
- Drought now affects >60 % of the continental U.S. (?153 million people).
- Wheat yields in West Texas projected at 18-20 bu/acre versus the farmer’s target of 80 bu/acre.
- Fertilizer price per ton reached $558 in April, a 38 % increase from February’s $402.
Official Statements & Responses
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins acknowledged “significant price increases at a time when our farm economy is struggling” and cited a prior X post indicating that about 80 % of farmers had locked in supplies before the war. The USDA also stated that the entire Trump administration was “focused on ensuring greater domestic production of affordable fertilizer.” In Senate testimony, the Kentucky Farm Bureau highlighted the diesel surge and urged congressional attention to the supply chain disruption.
Criticism & Opposition
Farmers contend that official assurances do not match reality. The American Farm Bureau Federation survey found many growers could not afford the fertilizer needed for 2026, especially in the Northeast and South where advance purchases are less common. Tommy Salisbury lamented paying “input prices of 2026 but getting crop prices of the 70s and 80s,” while Scott Irlbeck described the situation as “three strikes” – fuel, drought, fertilizer.
On-the-Ground Reports
Across the Plains, growers are either delaying planting, reducing fertilizer use, or considering insurance claims for total loss. The combined effect of higher operating costs and lower yields threatens the profitability of staple crops such as hard red winter wheat, sorghum and cotton.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- USDA claims 80 % of farmers pre-locked inputs, yet the Farm Bureau survey indicates many, particularly in the South, lack pre-purchased fertilizer.
- No definitive timeline exists for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving future fuel and fertilizer prices uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There's fuel, there's drought, there's fertilizer,” — Scott Irlbeck, Texas farmer
- “Rain can help preserve what's left, but it won't reverse the damage already done.” — Amanda De Oliveira Silva, Oklahoma State University agronomist
- “We're paying input prices of 2026 but we're getting crop prices and grain prices of the 70s and 80s,” — Tommy Salisbury, Oklahoma farmer
- “How can I go out and be financially prudent and book this high-dollar fertilizer when I don't even know if I'm going to make a crop?” — Kody Carson, Texas farmer
- “I hope the good Lord takes care of us,” — Tom Gregory, Texas farmer
What’s Next
Farmers will decide in the coming weeks whether to plant sorghum, wheat or cotton under the current cost structure. USDA officials say they are monitoring fertilizer usage data and evaluating additional relief measures. Analysts expect that any diplomatic resolution affecting the Strait of Hormuz could quickly alter diesel and fertilizer markets, while long-term drought mitigation will depend on regional water-management policies and federal climate initiatives.
