Story perspectives

U.S. Forest Carbon Offsets Threatened by Rising Wildfire Risk

5/21/2026

27 5

Summary

Researchers Warn

Researchers published a Nature study that U.S. forest carbon-offset projects risk losing carbon as climate disturbances intensify.
Wildfire risk to carbon storage could rise from 10% to 33% of the U.S. over a century.
Idaho, Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico face over 80% chance of wildfire-driven carbon loss in 100 years.
Existing buffer pools are about sixfold insufficient, prompting authors to call for larger pools and low-risk project sites.

Summary

Griscom Proposes Solutions

B. W. Griscom, lead author of a 2017 study, says natural climate solutions could meet up to 30 % of emissions reductions needed by 2050.
J. Rockström, author of a 2021 biosphere stewardship paper, proposes a framework that protects carbon sinks while boosting ecosystem resilience.
A. Nölte, lead author of a 2023 tropical reforestation paper, finds productivity drops sharply when mean annual temperatures exceed 29 °C.

Summary

Researchers Simulate

Researchers use PGW methodology with PGW4ERA5 v1.1 software to simulate fire and cyclone scenarios.
Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program supplies annual plot data on pinyon-juniper woodlands that inform fire-related carbon assessments.
Studies show fire frequency alters soil carbon and nitrogen (Pellegrini 2018) and that U.S. West reburning yields only short-term negative feedbacks with differences (Buma 2020).
Hasler 2024 incorporates albedo changes into restoration models to pinpoint tree-cover projects delivering net climate-positive outcomes.

Summary

Researchers Flag

Recent analyses deem the California Air Resources Board’s compliance offset program’s buffer pool severely undercapitalized.
A 2022 study identified over-crediting of forest carbon offsets within the program, inflating reported removals.
A 2025 research report concluded that current buffer pool contributions fail to insure against disturbance-driven carbon losses.
CARB’s forest-project protocol, issued in 2015, governs credit quantification.
CARB’s database logged all offset transfers by California and Québec entities in Q4 2023.

1 of 4

Researchers Warn

Researchers published a Nature study that U.S. forest carbon-offset projects risk losing carbon as climate disturbances intensify.
Wildfire risk to carbon storage could rise from 10% to 33% of the U.S. over a century.
Idaho, Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico face over 80% chance of wildfire-driven carbon loss in 100 years.
Existing buffer pools are about sixfold insufficient, prompting authors to call for larger pools and low-risk project sites.

1 / 4