Trump’s Pre-War Price Claims Contradicted by Inflation and Gas Data

President Donald Trump asserted that inflation was “at 1.6 % for the last three months just prior to the war” and that gasoline was selling for “$1.85, $1.90 in Iowa, and a lot of other places.” These statements were made during a White House congressional picnic and in subsequent Fox News interviews after the United States launched its first strikes against Iran on 28 February 2026.

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Official Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show year-over-year inflation at 2.7 % in November 2025, 2.7 % in December 2025, and 2.4 % in both January and February 2026—figures collected before the war began. Inflation rose to 3.3 % in March 2026 and 3.8 % in April 2026. From the start of Trump’s second term in January 2025 through February 2026, average prices were up 2.9 %; by April 2026 the increase reached 4.8 % overall. While some items such as eggs fell in price, the aggregate trend was upward.

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On 28 February 2026 the national average price for regular gasoline was $2.98 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). The lowest state average that day was Oklahoma at $2.47 per gallon. Iowa’s average was $2.64 on both 27 and 28 February, and $2.57 in late January. GasBuddy’s tracking identified only four stations nationwide selling gasoline below $2 per gallon on 24 February, and four stations in Iowa out of 2,036 tracked locations. By the following Wednesday, AAA reported a national average of $4.56 per gallon.

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Trump repeatedly claimed that “inflation was at 1.6 % for the last three months just prior to the war” and that “we inherited high prices and we got the prices down… to numbers that in some cases people have not seen before.” He also said, “We had numbers that nobody’s seen in a long time. So you had $2 a gallon,” referring to gasoline prices in Iowa.

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CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale labeled Trump’s narrative a “fantasy world,” noting that the cited inflation rates were inaccurate and that national gasoline prices were far above $2 per gallon before the conflict. Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, confirmed that the number of stations selling below $2 on 28 February was “the same or fewer” than earlier in the month. The New Civil Rights Movement echoed Dale’s assessment, describing Trump’s statements as “fictional stories about how low prices supposedly were before the war.”

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Trump’s claim of widespread sub-$2 gasoline contradicts AAA and GasBuddy data showing only a handful of stations at that price. A possible source of confusion is the ethanol-gasoline blend E85, which sold near $1.85 in Iowa but is not regular gasoline. No additional data were provided to clarify the extent of such niche pricing.

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Accurate economic information influences public sentiment during wartime. Discrepancies between official statements and independent price data raise questions about political accountability and the framing of inflation and energy costs for voters.

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• “inflation was at 1.6% for the last three months just prior to the war.” — President Donald Trump, White House picnic

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• “We inherited high prices and we got the prices down, and we got them down to numbers that in some cases people have not seen before,” — President Donald Trump, Fox News interview

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• “We had numbers that nobody’s seen in a long time. So you had $2 a gallon,” — President Donald Trump, press briefing, 7 May 2026

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• “When he’s been asked about the inflation or the unhappiness, Trump has repeatedly responded with lies — fictional stories about how low prices supposedly were before the war.” — Daniel Dale, CNN fact-checker

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• “Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, told CNN on Wednesday there would have been “the same or fewer stations” under $2 on February 28, as overall prices were trending upward at the time.” — Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy

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