Iran Conflict Drives Historic Surge in U.S. Gasoline Prices Ahead of Memorial Day

In late February 2026 the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting Iranian retaliation that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. The strait handles roughly 20 percent of global oil shipments, and its shutdown has cut crude-oil flows, pushing international oil prices above $100 per barrel. The disruption has cascaded into U.S. gasoline markets as the summer travel season begins.

Reuters

• National pump price: GasBuddy projects an average of $4.48 per gallon for Memorial Day, 42 percent above the 2025 level; Reuters reports a $4.56 average, a 45 percent rise since late February.

CNN

• Historical comparison: Only the 2022 Memorial Day (average $4.61) was higher.

CNN

• Travel demand: AAA expects 39.1 million drivers and 3.66 million flyers this weekend.

Reuters

• Inventory draws: U.S. gasoline stocks fell 1.5 million barrels to 214.2 million (EIA), marking 14 consecutive weekly declines; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down 10 percent since the conflict began.

Reuters

• Consumer cost impact: Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab estimates a $24 billion increase in gasoline expenses, roughly $200 per household, contributing to a total $43 billion rise in energy costs.

CNN

The White House cites a “record release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a waiver of the Jones Act, and the temporary easing of Russian-oil sanctions” as emergency measures to curb prices. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers emphasized the administration’s goal of “unleashing American energy dominance, lowering costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families.” Several states have suspended portions of their gas taxes, and federal discussions are under way to reduce the 18.4-cent per-gallon federal tax. President Donald Trump has reiterated that the price spike is temporary and framed it as a necessary trade-off for national security.

Washington Examiner

A CNN poll shows only 21 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of gasoline prices, with a majority of Republicans expressing disapproval. Seventy-five percent of respondents say the war with Iran has negatively affected their finances. Consumer advocacy groups warn that the “peanuts” characterization downplays the real burden on households, especially retirees and low-income earners.

CNN

Pittsburgh resident Chris Haenel, who spends $80 weekly on fuel, described the situation as “insane.” Retired mechanic Gary Auerswald (Illinois) argued the price increase is “a big price” that forces him to forgo visits to his great-granddaughter because of the cost of a long drive.

CNN

Higher gasoline prices have pushed the U.S. inflation rate to nearly 4 percent and caused real wages to shrink for the first time in three years. Travel behavior is already shifting: a GasBuddy survey shows only 56 percent of Americans plan to drive more than two hours this summer, down from 69 percent last year, and 67 percent cite fuel costs as a primary factor in trip planning.

Reuters

Sources differ on the exact national average price—$4.48 (CNN/GasBuddy) versus $4.56 (Reuters/AAA). Forecasts also vary: GasBuddy expects a possible $5 per gallon if the Strait remains closed, while Reuters notes prices could “cross the $5 mark” under the same condition. No definitive timeline exists for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leaving future price trajectories uncertain.

CNN

Analysts caution that even after the strait reopens, inventories may take a year to recover, keeping pressure on pump prices throughout the summer. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, potential additional SPR releases, and the outcome of state tax-relief measures will shape the trajectory of U.S. gasoline costs in the months ahead.

Reuters

• “This is peanuts,” — Donald Trump, President of the United States

CNN

• “Every day, I drive by the gas station and it’s just insane,” — Chris Haenel, Pittsburgh resident

CNN

• “You cannot do this forever,” — Andy Lipow, President, Lipow Oil Associates

CNN

• “This is the most volatile summer at the pump in years, and the Strait of Hormuz closure is at the center of it,” — Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis, GasBuddy

Reuters

• “We are in big trouble as far as gasoline is concerned,” — Bob Yawger, Director of Energy Futures, Mizuho

Reuters

• “It’s not a small price to pay. It’s a big price. He doesn’t care about us,” — Gary Auerswald, Retired mechanic, Illinois

CNN