FAO Warns Hormuz Closure Could Spark Global Food Price Crisis Within a Year

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz constitutes the start of a systemic agrifood shock. The agency says the disruption could trigger a severe global food-price crisis within six to twelve months if decisive action is not taken. The warning follows the shutdown of tanker and cargo traffic after the U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran in February 2024.

The New ArabUN Warns Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within a YearPolitico EuropeHormuz tensions put global food security at risk; FAO warnsQatar news agency

Before the conflict, the strait handled roughly 20 percent of world oil shipments and about one-third of global nitrogen-fertilizer exports. The blockage has halted the flow of urea, ammonia and phosphates—key inputs for industrial agriculture—creating immediate supply constraints.

UN Warns Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within a Year

• Máximo Torero – Chief Economist, FAO, the principal voice behind the warning.

UN Warns Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within a Year

• FAO – United Nations agency responsible for monitoring global food security.

UN Warns Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within a Year

• European Commission – Recently unveiled a fertilizer action plan focused on manure and waste recycling.

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• International financial institutions, private sector, UN agencies, research centres – Identified by the FAO as essential partners for mitigation.

Hormuz tensions put global food security at risk; FAO warns

• The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third consecutive month in April 2024, driven by high energy costs and Middle-East-related disruptions.

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• Fertilizer prices have surged exponentially, with farmers’ purchasing power at its lowest in four years.

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• The shock is expected to progress through six stages: energy, fertilizer, seeds, lower yields, commodity-price spikes, and finally food inflation.

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The Global South faces the greatest risk. Countries such as India, Bangladesh, Egypt and Sudan are already experiencing severe shortages and acute food insecurity. Poorer nations across Asia, Africa and Latin America, which rely heavily on imported nitrogen fertilizer, are especially exposed.

UN Warns Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within a Year

FAO officials call for immediate diversification of trade corridors—land routes across the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea—while urging governments to refrain from export restrictions on energy, fertilizers and agricultural inputs. The agency also recommends protecting humanitarian food aid from trade curbs, providing emergency credit aligned with harvest cycles, expanding digital farmer registries, and reactivating the Food Import Financing Facility used during the 2022 shock. Medium-term measures include building regional storage capacity, investing in precision agriculture, and developing green-ammonia and biostimulant technologies.

Hormuz tensions put global food security at risk; FAO warns

The European Commission’s fertilizer action plan, announced concurrently, emphasizes long-term measures such as manure recycling but omits faster levers—e.g., suspending tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer imports or pausing the EU carbon-border tax—that could immediately lower fertilizer costs for European producers. Analysts view this omission as a missed opportunity to mitigate the emerging crisis.

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• “Start seriously thinking about how to increase the absorption capacity of countries, how to increase their resilience to this choke, so that we start to minimize the potential impacts,” — Máximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist

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• “The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) warned Wednesday that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could "trigger a severe global food price crisis" in the coming months.” — FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization)

The New Arab

• “The shock is unfolding in stages: energy, fertiliser, seeds, lower yields, commodity price increases, then food inflation,” — FAO

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• “The Strait’s closure has already halted the distribution of urea, ammonia, and phosphates, which are essential components for industrial-scale farming worldwide.” — Máximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist

UN Warns Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within a Year

• “Countries such as India, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Sudan are being hit hardest.” — FAO

UN Warns Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within a Year

FAO urges governments to finalize alternative trade routes within the next three months and to enact export-restriction moratoria before the upcoming planting season. The agency also plans to launch emergency credit programmes and digital-registry pilots in vulnerable African nations by the end of 2024, while monitoring El Niño developments that could exacerbate drought conditions.

Qatar news agency