Story perspectives

Campi Flegrei Caldera Expected Transition by 2034, 500k at Risk

5/21/2026

Summary

Story summary

Study by Davide Zaccagnino predicts the Campi Flegrei caldera will reach a transition between 2030 and 2034.
The 15 km-wide Campi Flegrei caldera west of Naples houses about 500,000 people.
Since 2005 the floor has risen 1.4 m, indicating a finite-time singularity in activity.
Researchers cannot yet tell if the breaking point will cause an eruption or another shift.
They will issue monthly forecast updates for emergency managers using the latest data.

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Story summary

Study by Davide Zaccagnino predicts the Campi Flegrei caldera will reach a transition between 2030 and 2034.
The 15 km-wide Campi Flegrei caldera west of Naples houses about 500,000 people.
Since 2005 the floor has risen 1.4 m, indicating a finite-time singularity in activity.
Researchers cannot yet tell if the breaking point will cause an eruption or another shift.
They will issue monthly forecast updates for emergency managers using the latest data.