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Unemployment Hits 4.5%, Markets Rise as RBA Rate-Hike Odds Plummet

5/22/2026

38 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

RBA Odds Fall

Unemployment rose to 4.5% in April, the highest in 4½ years, after a loss of 18,600 jobs lifted the rate from 4.3%.
The S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.5% to 8,634 points as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate-hike odds for June 7 fell to 3% from 13%.
Senior economist Taylor Nugent said the RBA now has less urgency to curb inflation while August-hike odds dropped to 40%.

Summary

RBA Hiring Risk

Female employment fell since August 2025, with full-time jobs down 19k and part-time down 13k in April 2026.
Youth unemployment rose above 11% in April 2026.
Hours worked grew 0.8% to 15.8 million, adding 0.9% more time per worker.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) survey showed fewer firms will increase staff this year, citing the Middle East conflict as hiring risk.
ABS head Sean Crick said April 2026 unemployment was above typical.

History

Historical Context

The 1990-91 recession saw RBA Governor Bernie Fraser lift the cash rate to 17.5% in August 1990, driving unemployment to 11% in 1992 – the highest since the 1930s. After the downturn, Paul Keating’s stimulus and deregulation spurred two decades of growth until a COVID-19 slowdown in 2020. In April 2026, RBA uncertainty left unemployment at 4.5% with 18,600 jobs lost and youth rates above 11%.

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RBA Odds Fall

Unemployment rose to 4.5% in April, the highest in 4½ years, after a loss of 18,600 jobs lifted the rate from 4.3%.
The S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.5% to 8,634 points as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate-hike odds for June 7 fell to 3% from 13%.
Senior economist Taylor Nugent said the RBA now has less urgency to curb inflation while August-hike odds dropped to 40%.

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