2026 World Cup: Who Could Become a First-Time Champion?

FIFA’s expansion to a 48-team format is intended to broaden football’s elite, but the odds still favor traditional powers. The tournament will be co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The Guardian

Norway qualified unbeaten, scoring 37 goals and relying on striker Erling Haaland, but lacks a top-class goalkeeper and must keep Martin Ødegaard fit. Portugal qualified with Cristiano Ronaldo, who has not played since a November red card, yet fields a balanced midfield of Vitinha, João Neves and Bruno Fernandes and a backline anchored by Rúben Dias and Nuno Mendes; coach Roberto Martínez, seeking to improve his reputation after Belgium, trusts the squad’s balance. The Netherlands posted a 27-4 goal differential in UEFA qualifying but still lacks a clinical finisher. Morocco, a semi-finalist in Qatar 2022, retains a veteran core and adds 18-year-old Ayyoub Bouaddi, though the source inconsistently lists its 2022 finish as both semi-finalist and Round of 16. Senegal, African champions, feature goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, defender Kalidou Koulibaly and striker Sadio Mané, with 22-year-old Habib Diarra emerging. Co-hosts United States, under Mauricio Pochettino, target a quarter-final return after a Round of 16 exit in 2006; Canada, led by Jesse Marsch, aims to move beyond the group stage for the first time. Mexico counts on 17-year-old Gilberto Mora as a breakout talent.

The Guardian

• Norway: 8-0 qualifiers, 37 goals, best finish third place (2002).

The Guardian

• Portugal: Qualified with Ronaldo, best finish runners-up (1974, 1978, 2010).

The Guardian

• Netherlands: 27-4 goal differential, best finish fourth (2022).

The Guardian

• Morocco: Semi-finalists 2022, best finish round of 16 (2022).

The Guardian

• Senegal: African champions, best finish round of 16 (2022).

The Guardian

• United States: Round of 16 (2006), third place (1930).

The Guardian

• Canada: Group-stage exits (1986, 2022).

The Guardian

• Mexico: Quarter-finals at home, best finish round of 16 (2006).

The Guardian

An inaugural champion would broaden football’s elite, validate the 48-team expansion, and inspire emerging nations by demonstrating that new powers can win the World Cup.

The Guardian

Roberto Martínez said he wants to “erase the stigma of having arguably underperformed.” Jesse Marsch expressed the goal to “advance from the group stage for the first time.” Mauricio Pochettino noted he is “still learning the nuances of international management.”

The Guardian

Critics note Norway’s defensive frailties and absent elite goalkeeper, Portugal’s dependence on an aging Ronaldo, the Netherlands’ shortage of a clinical striker, and Turkey’s 6-0 defeat exposing a competitive gap.

The Guardian

The article lists Morocco’s 2022 finish both as a semi-finalist and as a Round of 16, a clear inconsistency.

The Guardian

The group-stage draw in June 2026 will set early match-ups, testing depth and shaping the path to a first-time champion.

The Guardian