Global Oil Inventories Plummet as Hormuz Closure Tightens Markets

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz after US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February cut oil flows to about 5 % of normal. Since early May, global draws have accelerated to 8.7 million barrels per day—double the conflict-average—and continued through June, marking a record draw rate since the conflict began. Goldman Sachs notes inventories have fallen to roughly 101 days of demand, the lowest in eight years.

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Two-thirds of the decline comes from reduced oil-on-water stocks as export volumes fell faster than refiners could adjust. China’s refinery imports and fuel sales have sharply dropped, while Europe’s jet fuel imports are about 60 % below 2025 averages. Brent trades near $106 per barrel, under the war-era peak above $126, but analysts warn of spikes to $120 or $200 if disruptions persist.

Goldman Sachs says global oil stockpiles falling at record pace as Hormuz flows hit 5%

The tightening market has lifted Brent. Goldman Sachs warns, “Physical markets continue to tighten, as estimated oil exports through the strait remain at a very low 5 % of normal,” and Citi adds, “It appears increasingly likely … that the Iranian regime will disrupt SoH flows for some time.” Exxon Mobil’s shares rose 1.4 % to $163, and earnings per share hit $1.16 on $83.16 billion revenue, beating forecasts. Management cited product mixes and technology-driven efficiencies, noting downstream and chemicals helped offset upstream volatility.

Exxon Mobil Corporation stock (US30231G1022): price uptick and earnings beat keep energy major in fo

Analysts project a price retreat to $80 per barrel if Iran and the United States reach a peace deal by June, while others warn that continued disruption could push Brent toward $120 or $200. Sources lack precise forecasts for alternative supply routes, and the trajectory of the next weeks depends on diplomatic progress or the development of alternative routes, adding uncertainty to market expectations.

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• “Physical markets continue to tighten, as estimated oil exports through the strait remain at a very low 5% of normal,” — Goldman Sachs analysts

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• “It appears increasingly likely, in our view, that the Iranian regime will disrupt SoH flows for some time,” — Citi analysts

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• “The proximate cause is the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where flows have fallen to approximately 5% of normal levels following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.” — InvestingLive analysis

Goldman Sachs says global oil stockpiles falling at record pace as Hormuz flows hit 5%

• “Europe's jet fuel imports running 60% below 2025 averages points to severe aviation sector disruption with knock-on implications for travel, logistics and airline earnings.” — InvestingLive conclusion

Goldman Sachs says global oil stockpiles falling at record pace as Hormuz flows hit 5%

Market participants will watch for diplomatic developments that could reopen Hormuz or establish alternative routes, while Exxon Mobil’s upcoming capital allocation plan will indicate how the company intends to navigate prolonged volatility and invest in both conventional output and low-carbon projects. Analysts also anticipate that any sustained price increase could accelerate investment in alternative supply projects.

Exxon Mobil Corporation stock (US30231G1022): price uptick and earnings beat keep energy major in fo