Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

Zandi: 40% Recession Risk, Income Stagnates, Trump May Intervene

5/21/2026

46 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said recession odds this year are 40%, well above the historical 15% average.
Zandi warned disposable income posted 0% net growth year over year, leaving lower- and middle-class households paycheck-to-paycheck and forced to trade down.
He said AI hyperscalers and chip firms drive the market rise, and that traders bet U.S. President Donald Trump will act with policy levers if a correction hits.

1 of 1

Story summary

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said recession odds this year are 40%, well above the historical 15% average.
Zandi warned disposable income posted 0% net growth year over year, leaving lower- and middle-class households paycheck-to-paycheck and forced to trade down.
He said AI hyperscalers and chip firms drive the market rise, and that traders bet U.S. President Donald Trump will act with policy levers if a correction hits.