HS2’s Evolution: From £32bn Vision to £100bn Scaled-Back Project

Labour's 2009 proposal for HS2 promised direct, high-capacity, high-speed links between London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester, with intermediate stations in the East Midlands and South Yorkshire. The 2010 map showed a Y-shaped line from London to Birmingham, then splitting to Leeds and Manchester. Justine Greening approved the plan in January 2012, estimating £32.7 billion (2011 prices) and a 2026 opening.

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Construction began in September 2020 after London-Birmingham leg’s budget rose to £44.6 billion (2019 prices). Eastern leg beyond East Midlands was cancelled in November 2021, saving £18 billion and ending near Nottingham. In October 2022 Rishi Sunak announced western Birmingham-Manchester branch would be axed. Work at Euston halted in March 2023 when spending reached £4.8 billion, exceeding £2.6 billion budget. In 2024 Labour commissioned Sir Stephen Lovegrove’s review, appointed Mark Wild as HS2 CEO, reaffirmed commitment to remaining route.

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Heidi Alexander estimates cost at £87.7-£102.7 billion today (?£80 billion 2019), about twice the 2021 allocation. Speed will be limited to 320 km/h, not the promised 360 km/h, cutting projected time saving on surviving section from 81 minutes to 45 minutes—a loss of 36 minutes. Lovegrove review flagged “gold-plated” engineering solutions, including a £100 million bat tunnel in Buckinghamshire, as unnecessary.

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Heidi Alexander condemned the budget, saying the previous administration had spent most of HS2’s budget without laying any track. Grant Shapps announced a shift to direct spending away from HS2 toward schemes and warned pandemic and delays had weakened the economic case. Lovegrove’s review highlighted gold-plated engineering solutions as a flaw. Labour pledged to continue HS2 reviewing spending, progress.

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MPs in constituencies and Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham criticised cuts. Environmental activists disrupted tunnel work at Euston Square Gardens, prompting remediation. 2019 resignation of HS2 chairman amid mismanagement accusations eroded confidence.

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Cost estimates vary between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion, reflecting accounting bases. Time-saving projections differ, reports citing an 81-minute improvement and others 45 minutes—a 36-minute gap. The effect of the cancelled western leg on connectivity remains unquantified.

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• “direct, high capacity, high speed links between London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester, with intermediate stations in the East Midlands and South Yorkshire” — Original HS2 plan

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• “weakened the economic case” — Grant Shapps, Former Transport Secretary

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• “gold-plated” engineering solutions. — Sir Stephen Lovegrove, Review Author

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• “spent most of HS2’s budget without laying a single metre of its track” — Heidi Alexander, Transport Secretary

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Trains are slated to run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street from 2036-2039, extending to Euston and Handsacre Junction by 2040-2043. Ongoing reviews will assess spending reallocations and any additional route modifications.

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