Full Breakdown
Makerfield By-election: A Pivotal Test for Labour and the Rise of Reform UK
5/21/2026, 11:31:51 PM
Triggering Event: Resignation and By-election Call
Labour MP Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a pathway for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to contest the Makerfield seat. The writ was moved, setting the poll for 18 June 2026.
Background: Burnham’s Regional Record and Recent Local Setbacks
Burnham has served as mayor since 2017, overseeing the Bee Network, the renationalisation of bus routes and a £2 fare cap. He won 66 % of the vote in the 2024 Wigan mayoral election. By contrast, Labour lost every seat on Wigan council in the May 2024 local elections; Reform UK captured 24 of 25 council seats and roughly 50 % of the vote in the Makerfield area.
Key Players
- Andy Burnham – Labour candidate, mayor of Greater Manchester.
- Josh Simons – Former Labour MP whose resignation triggered the contest.
- Keir Starmer – Prime Minister and Labour leader.
- Robert Kenyon – Reform UK candidate, self-employed plumber who received 12,803 votes in the 2024 general election.
- Nigel Farage – Reform UK leader.
- Michael Winstanley – Conservative candidate, former Mayor of Wigan.
- Kemi Badenoch – Conservative leader, praised Winstanley’s local credentials.
Timeline
- May 2024 – Local elections: Reform sweeps Wigan council.
- 20 May 2026 – Reuters reports Simons’ resignation and Burnham’s intent to stand.
- 21 May 2026 – Labour NEC confirms Burnham as the sole candidate.
- 18 June 2026 – By-election scheduled.
Numbers
- 2024 general election: Simons won by 5,399 votes (18,202 vs 12,803).
- Polls (John Curtice, Britain Elects) place Labour at 39 % and Reform at 36 %, a margin of a few points.
- Reform’s local vote share in Makerfield area reported at ? 50 %.
Why It Matters
A Burnham win would give him a parliamentary seat and the constitutional right to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership. A Reform victory would mark the party’s first breakthrough in a traditionally Labour stronghold, potentially reshaping the opposition landscape.
Official Statements
- Burnham pledged to “focus on getting the basics right for people” and said a win would “change Labour.”
- Starmer affirmed he will “not set a timetable for my departure; I will fight the next election.”
- Badenoch described Winstanley as “an excellent champion of the area.”
- Reform UK labelled Kenyon a “plucky plumber” taking on “Open Borders Burnham.”
Criticism & Opposition
Reform and Farage portray Burnham as an “elite parachute” and accuse him of “open-borders” policies. Within Labour, some members criticize his recent softening on Brexit, noting his comment that “the last thing we should do is rerun those arguments.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on Burnham’s Brexit stance: earlier remarks hinted at supporting re-joining the EU, while later statements deny any immediate plan to do so. Poll figures vary between a narrow Labour lead (Curtice) and a near-tie (Britain Elects). Detailed vote shares for smaller parties (Greens, Monster Raving Loony) are not provided.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If I get to stand, a vote for me will be a vote to change Labour, because Labour needs to change if we are to regain people’s trust.” — Andy Burnham
- “My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is rerun those arguments.” — Andy Burnham
- “This is the ‘The Plucky Plumber’ taking on ‘Open Borders Burnham.’ Only Reform UK can beat Labour in this byelection,” — Nigel Farage
- “Let's get this country functioning again, let's get the basics right for people,” — Andy Burnham
- “I want to say sorry to the residents of the Makerfield constituency, for the circus that is about to arrive in town,” — Andy Burnham
What’s Next
The 18 June poll will decide whether Burnham can re-enter Westminster and launch a leadership challenge. A Burnham victory would trigger a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester within 35 working days. Reform UK will seek to consolidate its council gains, while the Conservatives and other parties finalize their candidates.
