Full Breakdown
Iran Expands Control Over the Strait of Hormuz via New Authority
5/21/2026, 11:37:00 PM
Expanded Claim and Permit Regime
Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) published a map showing “Iranian armed forces oversight” over more than 22,000 sq km (? 8,800 sq mi) of the Strait of Hormuz, extending into waters claimed by Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The authority announced that any vessel transiting the strait must obtain coordination and authorization from the PGSA, and that “passage without permission will be considered illegal.”
Background to the Assertion
The claim follows the February 28 war between Iran, the United States and Israel, after which Iran closed the strait and the U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports on 13 April. Prior to the conflict, 120–140 ships—including oil tankers carrying roughly 20 million barrels of oil and 10 billion cf of LNG per day—passed through the waterway, representing about 20 percent of global seaborne oil and LNG supplies.
Key Figures and Numbers
- Area claimed: > 22,000 sq km.
- Reported transits: IRGC Navy said 26 commercial vessels passed in a 24-hour period; independent tracking (Windward) recorded three VLCCs, while Kpler data noted ten vessels.
- Toll requests: up to $2 million per ship, paid in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency.
- Potential revenue: analysts estimate $3–8 billion annually if traffic returns to pre-war levels; Iranian officials have cited a possible $100 billion yearly haul.
- Economic loss from closure: ? $115 billion in oil and $7.8 billion in LNG per day.
Why It Matters
The strait’s blockage has driven global oil prices higher, strained insurance markets, and forced many operators to reroute or halt voyages. War-risk premiums have risen fivefold, and shipping firms face the dilemma of paying Iran’s fees—risking U.S. sanctions—or bearing the cost of prolonged anchorage.
Official Statements & Responses
- Iran: Ambassador Mohammad Amin-Nejad told Bloomberg that a joint Iran-Oman mechanism would “provide security services and manage navigation” and that “those who wish to benefit from this traffic must also pay their share.” Parliamentary committee chair Ebrahim Azizi said Iran could generate “up to $100 billion annually” from the strait.
- UAE: Presidential adviser Anwar Gargash dismissed the claim as “nothing but pipe dreams” and warned that Iran’s actions “infringe on the UAE’s maritime sovereignty.”
- United States: President Donald Trump posted that the U.S. would “hold off a military attack … at the request of Gulf states” but added, “If we don’t get the right answers, it goes very quickly. We’re all ready to go.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared any toll system “unacceptable” and “completely illegal.” CENTCOM reported redirecting 94 commercial ships and disabling four vessels since the blockade.
Criticism & Opposition
Maritime lawyers, including Ian Ralby of Auxilium Worldwide, labeled the PGSA’s toll regime “flat-out illegal under international law” because UNCLOS guarantees free transit through natural straits. UAE officials and U.S. policymakers argue that the move sets a “dangerous precedent” that could undermine freedom of navigation worldwide.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the exact number of vessels allowed through: IRGC claims 26 ships, Windward notes three VLCCs, and Kpler tracks ten vessels. No official tariff schedule has been published, and it remains unclear how the PGSA will enforce payments against existing sanctions regimes.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The regime is trying to establish a new reality born from a clear military defeat, but attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz or infringe on the UAE's maritime sovereignty are nothing but pipe dreams,” — Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential adviser
- “passage without permission will be considered illegal” — Persian Gulf Strait Authority (official X account)
- “Believe me, if we don't get the right answers, it goes very quickly. We're all ready to go,” — Donald Trump, President of the United States (Truth Social)
- “flat-out illegal under international law.” — Ian Ralby, maritime lawyer, Auxilium Worldwide
- “New billboards in Tehran's metro system claim Iran could generate up to $100 billion annually from Strait of Hormuz revenues.” — Ebrahim Azizi, parliamentary committee chair
What’s Next
Iran and Oman are negotiating a permanent toll framework, while Pakistan mediates renewed U.S.–Iran talks. The United States continues to enforce its blockade and warns that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions. Regional actors, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are preparing alternative export routes such as the Fujairah pipeline, underscoring the ongoing uncertainty over the strait’s future governance.
