Trump Administration's USAID Shutdown Linked to Surge in African Conflict

Days after President Donald Trump's 2025 inauguration, his administration issued a stop-work order halting nearly all USAID overseas programs. By July 2025 the agency was dissolved, marking the largest U.S. development-aid withdrawal in over 60 years.

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Founded in 1961, USAID has been the primary channel for food-security, health, and disaster-relief aid across sub-Saharan Africa, reaching millions in climate-vulnerable, politically fragile states.

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The *Science* study examined 870 African subnational units that previously received USAID assistance. In high-funding areas, conflict rose 12 %, armed battles 7.3 %, protests and riots 6.8 %, and battle deaths 9.3 % during the ten months after the shutdown.

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The surge in conflict and fatalities threatens food-security gains, displaces populations, and can exacerbate climate-driven migration. Increased violence hampers humanitarian access, raising the risk of instability and higher humanitarian costs for donors. These dynamics echo the United Nations report linking conflict and extreme weather as top drivers of hunger.

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Austin Wright, University of Chicago co-author, called the shutdown “unprecedented in magnitude.” Zia Mehrabi warned that pulling health and food aid “directly results in people suffering and dying.” Chelsea Marcho said food-security monitoring is “potentially in decline while risks increase.”

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The authors note a ten-month observation window, a baseline from the early Trump era, and a focus limited to Africa, omitting State Department cuts. Critics say the analysis cannot isolate USAID effects from broader aid reductions and warn against equating U.S. development aid with stability.

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Some scholars note that concurrent cuts to other U.S. programs and the short post-shock period may mask longer-term trends, leaving a measurement gap despite robustness checks.

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“Who in their right mind would retract healthcare and food so abruptly, in so many places, when the direct result is people suffering and dying?” — Zia Mehrabi, University of Colorado Boulder

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“There is nothing that we’re aware of in recorded human history of the magnitude of that shutdown, in terms of ending a country’s commitment at a global scale,” — Austin Wright, University of Chicago

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“I think it is a leap to say this is all attributable to USAID.” — Austin Wright, University of Chicago

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“The visibility that we have around food security is potentially in decline at the same time that the risks to the system are increasing,” — Chelsea Marcho, Food Security Leadership Council

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Researchers call for longer-term analyses and restored monitoring systems to assess the full impact of the USAID shutdown across Africa and beyond.

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