Story perspectives

El Niño Likely 2026, Threatening Hurricanes, Drought, Monsoon

5/22/2026

Summary

Story summary

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives an 82 % chance El Niño will form May-July 2026 and a 96 % chance it will persist.
NASA’s SPoRT reports a 61 % chance of El Niño emergence as of mid-May 2026.
Forecasters assign a one-in-four chance temperatures will exceed 2 °C, which could suppress Atlantic hurricanes and boost Pacific tropical storms.
A super-El Niño scenario may worsen Northwest U.S. drought and wildfire risk, bring wetter Gulf-Coast winters, and weaken Indian monsoon rains.

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Story summary

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives an 82 % chance El Niño will form May-July 2026 and a 96 % chance it will persist.
NASA’s SPoRT reports a 61 % chance of El Niño emergence as of mid-May 2026.
Forecasters assign a one-in-four chance temperatures will exceed 2 °C, which could suppress Atlantic hurricanes and boost Pacific tropical storms.
A super-El Niño scenario may worsen Northwest U.S. drought and wildfire risk, bring wetter Gulf-Coast winters, and weaken Indian monsoon rains.