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Waller Calls for No-Easing Bias; Rates Likely Hold

5/22/2026

Summary

Waller Urges Hold

Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged dropping the “easing bias” and holding rates until inflation nears 2%, citing April’s 3.8% reading and broadening pressure.
Market pricing shows odds of a quarter-point hike by October and near-even odds for September.
June 16-17 FOMC, first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, is set to keep rates steady after April’s unchanged decision and minutes noting inflation above 2% and oil prices due to Iran-related conflict.

Summary

Fed Hike Odds

Prediction markets raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in late 2026 to 31.5%, up from 28%.
The odds of a June 2026 rate cut fell to 1.2%, indicating a hawkish tilt.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the benchmark funds rate at 4.75-5% and left the policy range at 3.50-3.75%.
A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields followed, pressuring risk assets and pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum lower as real yields rose.

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Waller Urges Hold

Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged dropping the “easing bias” and holding rates until inflation nears 2%, citing April’s 3.8% reading and broadening pressure.
Market pricing shows odds of a quarter-point hike by October and near-even odds for September.
June 16-17 FOMC, first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, is set to keep rates steady after April’s unchanged decision and minutes noting inflation above 2% and oil prices due to Iran-related conflict.

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