Full Breakdown
Lula Leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil Election Poll Amid Banco Master Scandal
5/23/2026, 1:08:22 AM
Election Race Overview
A Datafolha poll released on May 22 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. In a potential second-round runoff, Lula leads 47% to 43%. The poll follows a May 16 survey that had the two candidates tied.
Scandal Background and Campaign Impact
Intercept Brasil reported that Flávio Bolsonaro negotiated a US$24 million investment from Daniel Vorcaro, former owner of the collapsed Banco Master, to finance a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Vorcaro has been in custody since March following a sweeping probe into Banco Master’s collapse. The Datafolha poll was conducted after the story, and Lula’s lead increased following the reports linking Flávio to a disgraced banker.
Key Figures
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – incumbent president, seeking re-election.
- Flávio Bolsonaro – senator, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, primary challenger.
- Daniel Vorcaro – former Banco Master owner, under investigation and detained.
- Michelle Bolsonaro – former first lady, appears in a Datafolha scenario as a possible opponent if Flávio withdrew.
- Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos – other candidates receiving single-digit support in the poll.
Polling Data and Trends
Datafolha surveyed 2,004 respondents between May 20-21, with a margin of error of ±2 percentage points. First-round results show Lula at 40%, Flávio at 31%, Caiado 4%, Zema 3%, Santos 3%. In a runoff without Flávio, Lula would lead 48% to 43% against Michelle Bolsonaro. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released earlier in the week gave Lula 48.9% and Flávio 41.8% in a potential runoff.
Official Statements & Responses
Flávio Bolsonaro has publicly denied any wrongdoing regarding the alleged investment. Lawyers representing Daniel Vorcaro declined to comment on the Intercept Brasil report.
Criticism & Opposition
The Intercept Brasil story alleges that Flávio Bolsonaro negotiated a US$24 million investment from Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. The report links Flávio to a disgraced banker.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ slightly on the magnitude of Lula’s lead, with Datafolha showing a 4-point advantage in a runoff and AtlasIntel/Bloomberg indicating a 7-point margin. No official comment has been provided by Vorcaro’s legal team, and no charges have been announced concerning the alleged investment.
Implications for Brazil’s Political Landscape
Datafolha’s results show Lula ahead of Flávio in both first-round and runoff scenarios. The poll also includes a scenario in which former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro would face Lula if Flávio withdrew from the race.
What's Next
Brazil’s first-round election is scheduled for later in 2026, with a possible runoff if no candidate secures an absolute majority. Vorcaro has been in custody since March following a sweeping probe into Banco Master’s collapse.
