Full Breakdown
U.S.-Israel Plan to Install Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s Successor Falters
5/23/2026, 1:52:58 AM
The Failed Coup Blueprint
At the outset of the war on 28 February 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces struck a security post in Tehran’s Narmak district. The strike killed Ahmadinejad’s guards, injured the former president and, according to The New York Times, was intended to free him from house arrest so he could be installed as the post-regime leader of Iran. The same day the initial U.S.–Israeli barrage also killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ahmadinejad’s condition and location became unknown after the attack, and the regime-change plan was abandoned.
Lead-up to the War and Regime-Change Talk
U.S. officials briefed to The New York Times said Israel had “developed a multistage regime-change strategy that unexpectedly envisioned Ahmadinejad in power, despite his history of anti-Israeli rhetoric and support of Iran’s nuclear program.” The plan was conceived before the war began, with both governments consulting Ahmadinejad about a possible transition after the anticipated collapse of the Islamic Republic.
Principal Actors
- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – President of Iran 2005-13, known for Holocaust denial, anti-Israel statements and advocacy of a nuclear-armed Iran. He fell out with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after 2011, was placed under house arrest, and barred from presidential races in 2017, 2021 and 2024.
- U.S. Administration – President Donald Trump, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly, and unnamed senior officials who approved the strategy.
- Israeli Government – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence (Mossad) that helped design the operation.
- Iranian Opposition Figures – Analyst Raz Zimmt and former White House adviser on Iran, who later commented on the plan’s feasibility.
Timeline of Key Moves
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Early 2026 | U.S. and Israel discuss a regime-change scenario that would place Ahmadinejad at the helm. |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Airstrike on Ahmadinejad’s compound; guards killed, Ahmadinejad injured; Khamenei killed. |
| Late Feb 2026 | Ahmadinejad becomes “disillusioned” with the scheme and ceases cooperation; his whereabouts unknown. |
| Mar-May 2026 | War continues with broader objectives (nuclear dismantlement, missile destruction); the Ahmadinejad plan is never revived. |
Numbers and Claims
- Ahmadinejad served two presidential terms (2005-2013).
- He was barred from the 2017, 2021 and 2024 elections.
- The February 28 strike killed at least eight of Ahmadinejad’s security personnel; the former president sustained injuries but survived.
- The same strike eliminated Supreme Leader Khamenei, according to U.S. officials.
Stakes and Potential Consequences
If successful, the scheme would have placed a former hard-line populist—once hostile to Israel and the United States—at the center of a post-war Iranian government, potentially reshaping regional power balances and affecting nuclear negotiations. Its failure underscores the difficulty of orchestrating regime change without a domestic power base, as highlighted by analysts.
Official Statements & Responses
- U.S. officials: “Israel developed a multistage regime-change strategy…” (see Verbatim Quotes).
- White House: “The United States Military met or exceeded all of its objectives… our negotiators are working to end Iran’s nuclear capabilities.” Anna Kelly.
- Trump: “We are not in a hurry… ideally I would like to see a few people killed as opposed to a lot.” (June 2026 briefing).
- Israeli officials have not publicly detailed the plan beyond confirming its existence.
Skepticism and Dissent
Analyst Raz Zimmt wrote on X: “It is difficult to understand how anyone could have believed that Ahmadinejad might become Iran’s next ruler.” Alex Vatanda (Middle East Institute) added: “If this was a genuine effort to go regime change, in many ways it is not a bad idea,” while also questioning Ahmadinejad’s popular support. A former White House adviser noted Ahmadinejad’s shift toward nationalist, non-Islamic rhetoric, suggesting a limited appeal.
Divergent Accounts & Gaps
Iranian media reported Ahmadinejad was merely injured, not under house arrest, and later denied his detention. Some sources claim the strike was a “jailbreak operation,” while others describe it as an assassination attempt. Ahmadinejad’s current location remains unverified, and no official Iranian statement confirms his status.
Verbatim Quotes
- “officials briefed on the plan told the Times that Israel developed a multistage regime-change strategy that unexpectedly envisioned Ahmadinejad in power, despite his history of anti-Israeli rhetoric and support of Iran’s nuclear program.” — U.S. official, briefed to *The New York Times*
- “It is difficult to understand how anyone could have believed that Ahmadinejad might become Iran’s next ruler,” — Raz Zimmt, Iran analyst, X
- “Alex Vatanka, head of the Iran programme at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said: “If this was a genuine effort to go regime change, in many ways it is not a bad idea.” — Alex Vatanda, head of the Iran programme, Middle East Institute
- “A former White House adviser on Iran said: “He is a true populist and even when he was president, he would be focused much more on the nationalistic sides of Iran, the history and the Persian heritage stuff that the Islamic republic had mostly been dismissing.” — Former White House adviser on Iran
- “My understanding is that he showed some level of recognition that his antics [on Israel] were not helpful, and that he was willing to do things differently,” — Former U.S. official, cited in *The Atlantic*
Outlook
U.S. and Israeli officials have not announced any renewed effort to place Ahmadinejad in power. The war’s focus remains on curbing Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities, while diplomatic negotiations continue amid lingering uncertainty about the former president’s fate and the broader implications of the disclosed coup blueprint.
