Full Breakdown
Trump Weighs Iran Deal Against Resumption of Hostilities
5/24/2026, 12:04:50 AM
Negotiations at a Crossroads
President Donald Trump told Axios on May 23 that the United States is “50-50” on whether it will sign a deal with Iran or resume strikes, and that a decision could come by Sunday. He said negotiators from Washington, Tehran and mediator Pakistan were “getting a lot closer” to a final agreement that would end the three-month war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address Iran’s nuclear programme.
Background and Recent Developments
The conflict began on Feb 28 2026 with coordinated U.S.–Israeli attacks on Iranian targets and escalated into a regional war. A cease-fire declared in early April paused combat to allow diplomatic talks. Since then, shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey has intensified.
Key Actors
- Donald Trump – U.S. President, decision-maker.
- JD Vance – Vice President, participant in advisory meetings.
- Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – Special envoy and senior adviser, respectively.
- Marco Rubio – U.S. Secretary of State, spokesperson on U.S. demands.
- Esmail Baghaei – Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
- Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf – Iranian parliamentary speaker.
- Syed Asim Munir – Pakistani army chief, mediator.
- Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman – Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister.
- Benjamin Netanyahu – Israeli prime minister, opponent of the draft.
- Sen. Roger Wicker and Sen. Lindsey Graham – Republican critics of a deal.
Timeline of Recent Milestones
- Early April – Cease-fire announced.
- May 20 – Trump says the U.S. is ready for further attacks but could wait “a few days.”
- May 23 – Trump declares negotiators “getting a lot closer,” repeats 50/50 stance, and schedules talks with advisers. Iran, the U.S. and Pakistan all claim progress.
- May 23-24 – Qatar and Pakistan send delegations to Tehran; Trump holds a conference call with Gulf leaders.
- May 24 – Oil prices dip as market participants anticipate a deal.
Data and Market Indicators
- U.S. crude fell to $96.35 / bbl and Brent to $102.58 / bbl, each down about 2 %.
- Two Chinese tankers carrying roughly 4 million barrels of Iraqi crude transited the Strait of Hormuz; later reports noted 35 vessels passing under Iranian permission.
- The International Energy Agency warned of a “red zone” for oil markets if the strait remains closed.
Official Statements & Responses
- Trump: will sign only a deal that gives the U.S. “everything we want.”
- Rubio: “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon; the strait must be opened without tolls, and enriched uranium must be turned over.”
- Baghaei: Iran is drafting a 14-point memorandum that includes ending hostilities, lifting the U.S. blockade and releasing frozen assets, but gaps remain.
- Netanyahu: described the draft as “very bad” for Israel and said he is “torn” over the negotiations.
- Wicker: called a prospective cease-fire “ill-advised” and urged continuation of strikes.
Criticism & Opposition
Israeli officials, led by Netanyahu, argue the proposal fails to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and could embolden Tehran. Republican senators Wicker and Graham contend that a deal would signal weakness and allow Iran to retain control of the Hormuz corridor. Domestic polls show Trump’s approval near 37 %, reflecting public fatigue with the war and rising energy costs.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
U.S. officials claim “some progress” and anticipate news within days, while Iranian spokespeople acknowledge a draft but note unresolved issues on uranium handling and toll-free passage through Hormuz. Media accounts differ on Netanyahu’s stance—some label him “concerned,” others report he is actively pushing for renewed strikes. No full text of the memorandum has been released, leaving key provisions opaque.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I will only sign a deal where we get everything we want,” — Donald Trump, CBS interview
- “Either we reach a good deal or I'll blow them to a thousand hells,” — Donald Trump, Axios interview
- “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The straits need to be open without tolls. They need to turn over their enriched uranium.” — Marco Rubio, New Delhi briefing
- “If Trump acts foolishly and the war resumes, the response against the United States will certainly be more crushing and bitter than on the first day of the war,” — Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iranian parliamentary speaker
- “The rumored 60-day ceasefire — with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith — would be a disaster,” — Roger Wicker, X post
What’s Next
Trump is expected to announce his decision by Sunday, May 24, after meetings with Witkoff, Kushner, Vance and a Gulf-leader conference call. A signed memorandum would trigger a 30-day window for detailed nuclear talks; failure to agree could lead to renewed U.S. strikes, for which senior military officials remain on standby. Regional mediators plan to continue shuttle diplomacy while oil markets watch the Hormuz situation closely.
