Colombia’s Presidential Race Narrows: Leftist Ivan Cepeda and Far-Right Abelardo de la Espriella Lead First-Round Polls

The AtlasIntel poll, conducted May 18-21 with 4,531 interviews, shows Cepeda 38.7 % and De La Espriella 37.3 %, while Valencia trails at 14.3 %. Its runoff projection gives De La Espriella 50 % against Cepeda 41.3 %. The Invamer poll reports Cepeda 44.6 % and De La Espriella 31.6 %, with Valencia at 14 %; its runoff projection favors Cepeda 52.4 % over De La Espriella 45.6 %. Both surveys indicate no candidate exceeds the 50 % threshold, implying a runoff on June 21 if required. Colombia’s electorate numbers about 41 million voters.

The Straits TimesFinal poll before Colombia's first round vote

President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first leftist head of state, halted new oil and gas exploration contracts to shift toward sustainable energy. His administration has pursued social reforms aimed at reducing inequality and has continued peace talks with illegal armed groups. The upcoming election will decide whether those reforms and the energy-policy shift will be maintained or reversed.

The Straits Times

Ivan Cepeda, a senator of the ruling party, pledges to deepen social reforms, cut inequality, and pursue peace negotiations with illegal armed groups, continuing Petro’s agenda. Abelardo de la Espriella, a businessman and far-right candidate of the Centro Democratico Party, vows to end negotiations, adopt a hard line on crime and drug trafficking, and stimulate mining and energy sectors through private-investment incentives. Paloma Valencia, also of the Centro Democratico Party, proposes expanding the armed forces and national police, launching an offensive against criminal gangs and guerrillas, promoting business, and cutting taxes.

The Straits Times

Media outlets have reported hostile coverage of De La Espriella, citing alleged connections to the defunct paramilitary group AUC and to drug traffickers. Critics argue that such ties could undermine democratic institutions and public safety. Valencia’s support has eroded despite backing from liberal and conservative political machineries and major corporate institutions, reflecting voter skepticism toward the far-right bloc.

Final poll before Colombia's first round vote

The AtlasIntel and Invamer surveys differ markedly in first-round support for De La Espriella (37.3 % vs. 31.6 %) and in runoff projections (De La Espriella 50 % vs. 45.6 %). Both agree no candidate surpasses the 50 % threshold, but the size of the projected runoff advantage varies. The AtlasIntel poll provides a sample size of 4,531 interviews; the Invamer methodology is not detailed, leaving uncertainty about the reliability of the divergent projections.

The Straits Times

A Cepeda victory would likely sustain Petro’s social-reform agenda, maintain peace-talk initiatives, and preserve the moratorium on new fossil-fuel contracts. A De La Espriella presidency could reverse those policies, prioritize private-sector mining and energy development, and intensify security operations against criminal groups. The election outcome will shape Colombia’s approach to inequality, crime, foreign investment, and environmental policy.

The Straits Times

The first round of voting is scheduled for May 31. If no candidate reaches an absolute majority, a runoff between the top two contenders will occur on June 21. The elected president will assume office on August 7.

Final poll before Colombia's first round vote