Full Breakdown
Texas Barbecue Industry Faces Crisis as Beef Prices Hit Record Highs
5/25/2026, 10:15:06 PM
Record Beef Prices Threaten Texas Barbecue Operations
In April 2026 the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a retail beef price of $9.64 per pound, a 13 % increase over the previous year. Texas barbecue restaurants, whose menus rely heavily on brisket, are confronting margins that “could disappear in a single bad week,” according to owner Russell Roegels. The surge has already forced the closure of Kirby’s BBQ (Houston) at the end of 2025 and prompted other joints—Brett’s BBQ Shop, Sabar BBQ, and Wright on Taco & BBQ—to consider shutting doors.
Background: Drought, Herd Decline, Tariffs, and Market Concentration
A decade of drought has driven the national cattle inventory to its lowest level in more than 70 years, while the herd size is the smallest in 75 years. President Donald Trump’s beef import tariffs, combined with pandemic-era operating cost spikes, have compounded the squeeze. Four meat-packing firms now control over 85 % of U.S. beef processing, a concentration that industry observers link to the current price inflation.
Key Stakeholders
- Russell Roegels – Owner of two Houston barbecue restaurants.
- Shawn Jones – Founder of Kirby’s BBQ (Houston).
- Ernest Servantes – Owner of Burnt Bean Co., Texas Monthly’s 2023 top barbecue joint.
- Sam Moore – Owner of J&W Barbecue (Houston).
- Craig Bieber – President, South Dakota Cattlemen’s Association.
- Terry Moench – Co-owner, Moody’s Quality Meats (Corpus Christi).
- Scott Frazier – Farmer, central Texas.
- Andrew Rechenberg – Economist, Coalition for a Prosperous America.
- Ken Paxton – Texas Attorney General.
Data & Statistics
- Retail beef: $9.64 lb?¹ (April 2026).
- Ground beef (U.S. average): $6.90 lb?¹; sirloin: $14.73 lb?¹.
- Consumer brisket price: $36 lb?¹; restaurant cost reported at $5.56 lb?¹.
- Cattle inventory: lowest in >70 years; herd size at historic low.
- Meat-packing market share: >85 % held by four firms.
Impact on Restaurants and Consumers
Restaurant owners report raising brisket prices by $1 to $38 lb?¹ and limiting menu days. Customers face ribeye at $21.99 lb?¹ and ground chuck at $6.49 lb?¹, prompting advice to shift to ribs, chicken, or alternative proteins such as ground turkey and pork. “The food is expensive right now, but we make it work,” said Sam Moore, while consumer Cynthia Bates affirmed she will still celebrate Memorial Day despite higher costs.
Official Statements & Responses
Attorney General Ken Paxton announced a state investigation into the dominant meat-packers, stating the office will hold any manipulators accountable. The Trump administration remains divided on a policy response; the White House has delayed a proposed temporary reduction in import tariffs while discussions continue.
Criticism & Opposition
Economist Andrew Rechenberg argues that “profits from high beef prices aren’t going to the people who raise America’s cattle— they’re being siphoned off by a handful of multinational meat-packing corporations.” Restaurant owners echo this view, blaming the concentrated packers for “price manipulation.”
On-the-Ground Reports
- “When you don’t have much grass because you’re not growing grass because it’s dry, you have to downsize… herds all over the U.S. have been downsizing for several years now.” — Scott Frazier, farmer.
- “It’s going to be an extended period of time… about four years, maybe five, before you really start seeing relief as far as pricing goes.” — Terry Moench, co-owner, Moody’s Quality Meats.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on beef pricing: Roegels cites a $5.56 lb?¹ cost to his restaurants, the USDA lists a $9.64 lb?¹ retail price, while consumer reports place brisket at $36 lb?¹. Ground beef is reported at $6.49 lb?¹ (consumer guide) and $6.90 lb?¹ (Bureau of Labor Statistics). No source provides definitive data on the volume of beef imports required to offset domestic shortages.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Everybody’s at risk these days: You’re one bad week from closing.” — Russell Roegels, restaurant owner
- “We’ve been in survival mode for the past year.” — Ernest Servantes, Burnt Bean Co. owner
- “If major meatpackers manipulated the market to underpay ranchers while forcing families to pay higher prices at the grocery store, we will hold them accountable,” — Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General
- “The profits from high beef prices aren’t going to the people who raise America’s cattle — they’re being siphoned off by a handful of multinational meatpacking corporations,” — Andrew Rechenberg, economist
- “It’s going to be an extended period of time, even if ranchers start holding heifers to rebuild their herds. It’s going to take about four years, maybe five, before you really start seeing relief as far as pricing goes or steadiness because it’s been very volatile right now,” — Terry Moench, co-owner, Moody’s Quality Meats
- “When you don’t have much grass because you’re not growing grass because it’s dry, you have to downsize, and so herds all over the U.S. have been downsizing for several years now. So that’s how we get the low numbers we have,” — Scott Frazier, farmer
