Climate Change Shrinks Habitats for Global Plant Species, Raising Extinction Risk

A new *Science* analysis modeled future ranges for over 67,000 vascular plant species—about 18 % of global vascular flora. It combined millions of occurrence records with emission scenarios for 2081-2100 to assess temperature, precipitation, soil and land-use constraints. Researchers estimate 7-16 % of species could lose >90 % of suitable habitat by 2100, placing them at high extinction risk. At-risk taxa include California’s Catalina ironwood, the ancient bluish spike-moss, and one-third of Australian *Eucalyptus* species.

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Projected losses are greatest for cold-adapted Arctic flora and dry regions such as the western United States and Mediterranean-type climates, where stronger droughts, lower soil moisture and more frequent wildfires are expected. Coastal Australia’s narrow shorelines may limit poleward shifts. The model predicts local gains across about 28 % of land as species move into newly suitable tropical and subtropical zones, forming novel plant communities with uncertain outcomes.

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Plants anchor terrestrial ecosystems by storing carbon, stabilizing soils, supporting wildlife and providing food, timber, medicines and other resources. Shrinking vegetation cover could lower carbon uptake, intensifying warming in a feedback loop. Safeguarding plant diversity is essential for nature and the ecosystem services that sustain human societies.

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Junna Wang and Xiaoli Dong note that climate change compresses the conditions plants need, limiting natural dispersal. They argue unlimited dispersal would not markedly lower extinction risk, implying assisted migration alone may be insufficient. The authors call for integrated conservation that tackles habitat loss and broader climate drivers.

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• “One way to picture this is to imagine plants trying to follow a moving 'climate envelope.' As temperatures warm, many species can shift northward or uphill to stay cool enough. But temperature is only part of the story,” — Junna Wang, Yale University; Xiaoli Dong, UC Davis

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• “If slow movement were the main problem, then allowing unlimited dispersal should dramatically reduce extinction risk. But that is not what we found,” — Junna Wang & Xiaoli Dong

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• “If climate change reduces vegetation cover, ecosystems may absorb less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which can further intensify warming. That creates a feedback loop in which climate change harms plants, and reduced plant cover/productivity in turn worsens climate change,” — Junna Wang & Xiaoli Dong

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• “Ultimately, protecting plant diversity is not only about conserving nature for its own sake - it is also about maintaining the ecological systems that support human societies,” — Junna Wang & Xiaoli Dong

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The authors urge long-term monitoring of plant range shifts, evaluation of assisted-migration protocols, and integration of habitat-preservation into climate-mitigation policies. Additional research should clarify the dynamics of novel plant communities and their carbon-cycle impacts.

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