Lake Research Partners Poll Highlights Fragmented Democratic Field

The poll follows the DNC’s post-mortem of the 2024 loss that saw President Donald Trump defeat Harris and cost the party control of Congress. Progressive activists have urged Ocasio-Cortez toward a White House bid and a more left-leaning platform. The DNC’s long-awaited review of the 2024 losses highlighted strategic shortcomings.

Newsweek

Recent surveys show Harris leading most polls but not all. Lake Research Partners (800 Democratic primary voters) gave Harris 25 % first-choice support, rising to 30 % in the next round and winning the final round 52 % to 48 % over Governor Gavin Newsom. The Lake Research Partners poll carries a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez placed fourth with 9 % first-choice and 12 % in the top-five. Echelon Insights (May 14-18, 460 voters) had Harris at 23 % versus Newsom’s 17 % and Ocasio-Cortez at 11 %. AtlasIntel (2,069 adults) placed Ocasio-Cortez first with 26 % and Harris at 12.9 %. Harvard/Harris (2,745 registered voters) kept Harris ahead at 50 % to Newsom’s 22 %. YouGov (2,189 adults) recorded Harris at 24 % and Newsom at 12 %. About 80 % of respondents rank Harris or Newsom among their top five, and support for ranked-choice voting rises from 63 % to 70 % after the exercise.

NewsweekNewsweek

When asked about a 2028 run, Ocasio-Cortez said her priority is policy, not ambition. She stressed she does not want to make legislative decisions while “fantasizing about being this or that,” and framed health care, a living wage and workers’ rights as enduring goals.

Newsweek

Progressive leaders urge Ocasio-Cortez to turn her base’s enthusiasm into a candidacy, arguing the party must adopt a platform anchored in climate action, Medicare-for-All and a $15 minimum wage. Some also call for her to challenge Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer if he runs again.

Newsweek

AtlasIntel places Ocasio-Cortez ahead of Harris, while most surveys keep Harris in front. Discrepancies stem from differing samples (registered voters vs likely primary voters), question formats (ranked-choice vs single-choice) and timing. No candidate has formally declared a 2028 bid.

Newsweek

“My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers' rights is forever, women's rights, all of that… when you aren't attached… it is tremendously liberating.” — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Newsweek

“nonpartisan organization seeking better elections for all” — Lake Research Partners

Newsweek