Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Runoff: Cornyn vs. Paxton and Trump’s Endorsement
5/25/2026, 12:40:08 AM
The Runoff Showdown
On May 26, 2026 Texas voters will choose the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in a runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX). Neither candidate secured a majority in the March 3 primary, prompting the head-to-head contest. The race intensified after former President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of Paxton on May 19, a move that reshaped the dynamics of the final week of campaigning.
Background & Context
Cornyn, a four-term senator first elected in 2002, previously served as Texas attorney general and a state-level judge. He has voted with Trump on 99 percent of recorded roll-call votes and is backed by Senate leadership, including Majority Leader John Thune. Paxton, the state attorney general since 2015, is a staunch Trump ally who has faced multiple legal controversies: a 2015 securities-fraud indictment (dismissed), a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House (acquitted by the Senate), and allegations of adultery and financial improprieties.
Data & Statistics
- Polls: The University of Houston Hobby School poll (April 28–May 1) gave Paxton 48 % to Cornyn’s 45 %; a Real Clear Politics aggregate showed Paxton ahead by 3.25 points; Texas Public Opinion Research placed Democrat James Talarico ahead of both Republicans.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi listed Paxton at a 90 % chance of winning; Polymarket rose to 96 % after Trump’s endorsement (up from ~60 % pre-endorsement).
- Early voting: Approximately 600 000 Republican ballots were cast early, roughly half the March primary turnout; daily totals ranged from 126 000 (Monday) to 160 000 (Wednesday).
- Campaign spending: Total ad outlays exceed $25 million, with Cornyn’s allies spending about $20 million and Paxton’s side about $5 million; later reports cite $90 million for Cornyn and $10.5 million for Paxton.
Official Statements & Responses
Cornyn told NewsNation’s “The Hill Sunday” that he can “overcome” Trump’s endorsement, emphasizing his long-term support for the president’s agenda while noting occasional “case-by-case” disagreements. He warned that a Paxton nomination would endanger Republican down-ballot races. Paxton’s campaign released a statement calling the Trump endorsement “the most significant endorsement in my lifetime.” Trump posted on Truth Social that Paxton is a “true MAGA Warrior” and described Cornyn as a “good man” who was “not supportive of me when times were tough.” Senate leaders John Thune, Thom Tillis, James Lankford, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski publicly expressed disappointment with the endorsement and endorsed Cornyn.
Criticism & Opposition
Republican critics argue Paxton’s legal baggage makes the seat vulnerable in November. Tillis labeled Paxton “a failure” who “doesn’t deserve to be in the U.S. Senate.” Collins called him “ethically challenged,” and Murkowski warned the endorsement “puts the seat in jeopardy.” State Rep. Matt Shaheen warned that Paxton would be an “anchor” dragging GOP candidates down-ballot.
Why It Matters
The runoff winner will face Democrat James Talarico in the November general election. Democrats have not won a statewide Texas office since 1994, but a Paxton nomination is viewed by many GOP officials as increasing the likelihood of a Democratic pickup and could affect the Senate’s partisan balance.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling results vary: some show Paxton leading by 5–8 points, others show Cornyn with a narrow March-primary edge of 1.5 points. Early-voting turnout data are incomplete, and no final statewide early-vote totals have been released.
Verbatim Quotes
What’s Next
Voters will cast ballots on May 26. The victor will appear on the November ballot against Talarico, with campaign strategies now focused on turnout, independent voters, and mitigating the perceived liabilities of the nominee. Prediction markets and late-stage polling will continue to track the race as the general-election outlook solidifies.
